Sport Picks
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estádio da Luz 
AI Match Summary
Benfica play Vitoria Guimaraes in the Liga Portugal 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Benfica averaged 2 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Vitoria Guimaraes averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Benfica won 4, Vitoria Guimaraes won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Benfica and 1.19 for Vitoria Guimaraes. This points to a Benfica double chance or over markets.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Benfica picked up more points recently compared to Vitoria Guimaraes.
- Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.19 xG).
- Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Benfica | Vitoria Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 32 |
| Wins | 20 | 15 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Benfica Compare
Vitoria Guimaraes Compare
Sokapicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Value Bet Detector (+EV)
Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds
Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations
Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries
Sokapicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Benfica scored in 87% of their last 31 games.
Vitoria Guimaraes let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Benfica went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Vitoria Guimaraes lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Match Risk Analysis
Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability
Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.
Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.
Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.
Interactive Team Comparison Slider
Side-by-side comparison of team metrics
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |