Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Pena Balsamaiso

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Berceo play Pena Balsamaiso in the Tercera RFEF - Group 16. Berceo are favorites here. Recently, Berceo averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. Pena Balsamaiso averaged 0.77 goals scored and 2.53 conceded. In past meetings, Berceo won 3, Pena Balsamaiso won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 18, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Berceo and 1.25 for Pena Balsamaiso. This points to a Berceo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%

Berceo

27%

Draws

13%

Pena Balsamaiso

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Berceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence

Berceo picked up more points recently compared to Pena Balsamaiso.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 51%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Berceo Clean Sheet 19%

Pena Balsamaiso Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Berceo	Pena Balsamaiso
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	0
Draws	8	10
Losses	12	20
Goals Scored	1.2	0.77
Goals Conceded	1.37	2.53
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Berceo vs Pena Balsamaiso

Possession: 55% - 42% Cards: 4 - 1

1:0

Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Pena Balsamaiso vs Berceo

Possession: 57% - 54% Cards: 0 - 4

2:2

Apr 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Pena Balsamaiso vs Berceo

Possession: 47% - 46% Cards: 0 - 3

1:3

Nov 30, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Berceo vs Pena Balsamaiso

Possession: 47% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

0:2

May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 16

Berceo vs Pena Balsamaiso

Possession: 50% - 60% Cards: 3 - 1

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Berceo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Pena Balsamaiso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Berceo 58 / 100

Pena Balsamaiso 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Berceo Pena Balsamaiso

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Berceo Win (1)

Secondary Pick Berceo & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +15.2%

1.92

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +13.2%

2.22

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Berceo attacking → ← attacking Pena Balsamaiso

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Berceo scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Pena Balsamaiso let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Berceo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Pena Balsamaiso lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 10

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Logrones B	34	26	8	0	99:22	86
2	Varea	34	22	7	5	51:25	73
3	Arnedo	34	21	9	4	72:26	72
4	CD Calahorra	34	17	12	5	86:26	63
5	Oyonesa	34	18	7	9	54:41	61
6	Anguiano	34	17	9	8	49:36	60
7	Haro Deportivo	34	14	9	11	54:46	51
8	Agoncillo	34	13	8	13	59:49	47
9	Vianes	34	11	9	14	39:51	42
10	Yague	34	9	13	12	48:52	40
11	San Marcial	34	10	9	15	39:59	39
12	Berceo	34	10	9	15	42:50	39
13	CDFC La Calzada	34	10	8	16	40:55	38
14	Comillas CF	34	11	5	18	32:58	38
15	Pradejon	34	9	8	17	30:49	35
16	Villegas	34	7	7	20	36:66	28
17	Autol	34	4	6	24	20:80	18
18	Pena Balsamaiso	34	0	11	23	27:86	11