Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League 2025/2026 Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Varela F.
46'
Sub
Varela F. In: Alarcon F.
Out: Varela F.
57'
Borgnino M.

AI Match Summary

The efbet League 2025/2026 game between Beroe and Septemvri Sofia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Septemvri Sofia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Beroe
35%
Draws
20%
Septemvri Sofia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Beroe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Septemvri Sofia have managed 0.97 goals a game lately — Beroe are scoring more at 1.03.
  • Win probability leans Beroe's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular efbet League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Beroe Clean Sheet 68%
Septemvri Sofia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Beroe Septemvri Sofia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.03 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2026 efbet League
Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia
0:1
Dec 7, 2025 efbet League
Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia
0:0
Aug 11, 2025 efbet League
Septemvri Sofia vs Beroe
2:3
Nov 24, 2024 efbet League
Beroe vs Septemvri Sofia
2:0
Jul 22, 2024 efbet League
Septemvri Sofia vs Beroe
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Beroe Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Septemvri Sofia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ozornwafor V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Beroe 95 / 100
Septemvri Sofia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Beroe Septemvri Sofia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Beroe Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Beroe remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Septemvri Sofia has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Septemvri Sofia has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Beroe VS Septemvri Sofia
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Beroe

(Home)
13 Sept
Beroe
1 : 0
Svoge
06 Sept
Dobrudzha
2 : 2
Beroe
03 Sept
Beroe
0 : 0
Montana
29 Aug
Etar
2 : 2
Beroe
25 Aug
Beroe
3 : 0
Spartak Pleven
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Septemvri Sofia

(Away)
19 Sept
Septemvri Sofia
0 : 3
Botev Plovdiv
14 Sept
Ludogorets
2 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
04 Sept
Septemvri Sofia
2 : 3
Botev Vratsa
28 Aug
Slavia Sofia
1 : 1
Septemvri Sofia
23 Aug
Septemvri Sofia
1 : 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
9 Botev Vratsa 37 13 14 10 36:32 53
10 Lok. Sofia 37 11 14 12 51:48 47
11 Slavia Sofia 37 12 10 15 42:44 46
12 Spartak Varna 37 8 13 16 35:57 37
13 Septemvri Sofia 37 9 9 19 32:64 36
14 Beroe 37 7 13 17 28:52 34
15 Dobrudzha 37 8 7 22 28:52 31
16 Montana 37 4 11 22 21:55 23
Relegation - efbet League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Vtora liga (Main)