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Betlemi Keda vs Merani Tbilisi

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Betlemi Keda play Merani Tbilisi in the Liga 3 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Betlemi Keda averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. Merani Tbilisi averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. In past meetings, Betlemi Keda won 2, Merani Tbilisi won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 25, 2026 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Betlemi Keda and 1.69 for Merani Tbilisi. This points to a Merani Tbilisi double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Betlemi Keda
20%
Draws
50%
Merani Tbilisi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Merani Tbilisi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Betlemi Keda picked up more points recently compared to Merani Tbilisi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Betlemi Keda Clean Sheet 13%
Merani Tbilisi Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Betlemi Keda Merani Tbilisi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 1.2 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.47 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Betlemi Keda
5:0
Nov 28, 2025 Liga 3
Betlemi Keda vs Merani Tbilisi
4:0
Jun 24, 2025 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Betlemi Keda
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Betlemi Keda
9:4
Jun 15, 2024 Liga 3
Betlemi Keda vs Merani Tbilisi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Betlemi Keda Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashba S.
4 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Merani Tbilisi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Betlemi Keda 30 / 100
Merani Tbilisi 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Betlemi Keda Merani Tbilisi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Merani Tbilisi or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Betlemi Keda attacking → ← attacking Merani Tbilisi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Betlemi Keda scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Merani Tbilisi let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Betlemi Keda went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Merani Tbilisi lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

23 Points in last 5 40
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shturmi30217268:2270
2Gori30207358:2867
3Odishi 191930204659:1964
4Dusheti30196579:3563
5FC Tbilisi 202530177659:3258
6WIT Georgia301410664:3252
7Orbi301111858:4044
8Didube301271147:4343
9Merani Tbilisi30881439:5232
10Betlemi Keda30781543:7129
11FC Gardabani30851737:6729
12Margveti 200630771636:7128
13Locomotive Tbilisi 230831943:6827
14Khobi30751835:6326
15Borjomi30651934:6023
16Bakhmaro Chokhatauri30342318:7413