Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Garliava

Lithuania Lithuania

Lithuanian Cup FK TransINVEST stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

BFA Vilnius play Garliava in the Lithuanian Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, BFA Vilnius averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. Garliava averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, BFA Vilnius won 3, Garliava won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 19, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for BFA Vilnius and 2.06 for Garliava. This points to a BFA Vilnius double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
BFA Vilnius
19%
Draws
36%
Garliava
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius picked up more points recently compared to Garliava.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 10%
Garliava Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Garliava
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.29 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Lithuanian Cup
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
2:1
May 9, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
1:2
Aug 9, 2024 I Lyga
Garliava vs BFA Vilnius
2:2
Mar 16, 2024 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
1:0
Nov 8, 2023 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Garliava
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Kudzin R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Misiunas D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Garliava Compare

Top Goalscorer Gedziunas S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 43 / 100
Garliava 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Garliava

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: BFA Vilnius or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

BFA Vilnius attacking → ← attacking Garliava

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BFA Vilnius scored in 68% of their last 31 games.

Garliava let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

BFA Vilnius went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Garliava lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 42
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
2.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88