Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Jonava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Jurevicius Z.

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between BFA Vilnius and Jonava finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward BFA Vilnius.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
BFA Vilnius
30%
Draws
19%
Jonava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives BFA Vilnius a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and BFA Vilnius have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 20%
Jonava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Jonava
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.53 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
1:0
Jul 26, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
0:0
Mar 15, 2025 I Lyga
Jonava vs BFA Vilnius
0:1
Oct 7, 2023 I Lyga
Jonava vs BFA Vilnius
0:3
May 21, 2023 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurevicius Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Jonava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 85 / 100
Jonava 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Jonava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Vilnius Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Jonava conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Recent resilience: BFA Vilnius stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

BFA Vilnius found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Jonava
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Atmosfera
1 : 1
BFA Vilnius
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
04 Sept
BFA Vilnius
2 : 1
FK Babrungas
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
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Jonava

(Away)
18 Sept
Jonava
2 : 3
Tauras Taurage
11 Sept
Neptunas
2 : 0
Jonava
04 Sept
Jonava
0 : 0
Dainava Alytus
29 Aug
Transinvest 2
1 : 2
Jonava
21 Aug
Jonava
0 : 1
Siauliai 2
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 24 21 1 2 63:13 64
2 FK Babrungas 25 19 4 2 43:11 61
3 BE1 NFA 24 16 2 6 43:25 50
4 Neptunas 25 14 2 9 33:30 44
5 BFA Vilnius 25 13 4 8 39:35 43
6 Zalgiris 2 25 13 4 8 38:32 43
7 Tauras Taurage 25 13 4 8 43:31 43
8 Dainava Alytus 24 11 7 6 34:23 40
9 FK Atmosfera 24 8 6 10 37:33 30
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 28:33 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 25 7 1 17 30:56 22
12 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 24 7 1 16 23:38 22
13 Garliava 24 6 4 14 27:30 22
14 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 29:58 21
15 Siauliai 2 25 4 5 16 27:56 17
16 Ekranas 25 4 2 19 25:58 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)