Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Jonava

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Jurevicius Z.

AI Match Summary

The I Lyga game between BFA Vilnius and Jonava finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward BFA Vilnius.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
BFA Vilnius
22%
Draws
18%
Jonava
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: BFA Vilnius

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives BFA Vilnius a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and BFA Vilnius have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 16%
Jonava Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Jonava
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.25 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
1:0
Jul 26, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
0:0
Mar 15, 2025 I Lyga
Jonava vs BFA Vilnius
0:1
Oct 7, 2023 I Lyga
Jonava vs BFA Vilnius
0:3
May 21, 2023 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Jonava
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFA Vilnius Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurevicius Z.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Jonava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 57 / 100
Jonava 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Jonava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

BFA Vilnius found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Jonava's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

BFA Vilnius went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Jonava
1 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
19 Jul
Ekranas
1 : 4
BFA Vilnius
02 Jul
BFA Vilnius
3 : 0
Ekranas
28 Jun
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
0 : 1
BFA Vilnius
23 Jun
BFA Vilnius
0 : 3
FK Kauno Zalgiris
20 Jun
BFA Vilnius
0 : 1
Hegelmann Litauen 2
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Jonava

(Away)
18 Jul
FK Minija
2 : 1
Jonava
27 Jun
Hegelmann Litauen 2
2 : 1
Jonava
21 Jun
Zalgiris 2
1 : 2
Jonava
12 Jun
Jonava
1 : 1
FK Atmosfera
07 Jun
Jonava
0 : 0
FK Minija
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1FK Minija16141141:1043
2FK Babrungas16133028:442
3BE1 NFA15102328:1532
4Tauras Taurage16101530:1731
5Neptunas1692522:1929
6Dainava Alytus1583426:1527
7BFA Vilnius1681722:2525
8Garliava1564522:1422
9FK Atmosfera1563623:1721
10Zalgiris 21663723:2521
11Jonava1645719:2217
12Transinvest 21643915:3815
13Hegelmann Litauen 216411116:3413
14Ekranas16211316:337
15FK Kauno Zalgiris 21621137:267
16Siauliai 216141114:387
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)