Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFA Vilnius vs Zalgiris 2

Lithuania Lithuania

I Lyga
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

BFA Vilnius host Zalgiris 2 in the I Lyga. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: BFA Vilnius at 1.55 goals for, 1.38 against; Zalgiris 2 at 1.52 for, 1.31 against. Past meetings favor BFA Vilnius slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 22, 2026, ending 3:4. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.50) point toward BFA Vilnius. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
BFA Vilnius
20%
Draws
46%
Zalgiris 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Zalgiris 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • BFA Vilnius carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 46% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
BFA Vilnius Clean Sheet 16%
Zalgiris 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFA Vilnius Zalgiris 2
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 14
Draws 4 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.55 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 I Lyga
Zalgiris 2 vs BFA Vilnius
3:4
Sep 12, 2025 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Zalgiris 2
1:0
May 11, 2025 I Lyga
Zalgiris 2 vs BFA Vilnius
4:1
Aug 7, 2023 I Lyga
Zalgiris 2 vs BFA Vilnius
1:6
Mar 18, 2023 I Lyga
BFA Vilnius vs Zalgiris 2
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFA Vilnius 36 / 100
Zalgiris 2 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFA Vilnius Zalgiris 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zalgiris 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: BFA Vilnius remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

BFA Vilnius found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Zalgiris 2 let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

BFA Vilnius VS Zalgiris 2
2.13 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

BFA Vilnius

(Home)
12 Sept
Garliava
2 : 3
BFA Vilnius
04 Sept
BFA Vilnius
2 : 1
FK Babrungas
28 Aug
Tauras Taurage
2 : 2
BFA Vilnius
22 Aug
BFA Vilnius
2 : 0
Neptunas
15 Aug
Dainava Alytus
0 : 0
BFA Vilnius
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Zalgiris 2

(Away)
12 Sept
Tauras Taurage
0 : 1
Zalgiris 2
07 Sept
Zalgiris 2
1 : 0
Neptunas
28 Aug
Dainava Alytus
0 : 1
Zalgiris 2
25 Aug
Zalgiris 2
4 : 3
Transinvest 2
14 Aug
Siauliai 2
1 : 4
Zalgiris 2
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Minija 23 20 1 2 61:12 61
2 FK Babrungas 24 18 4 2 42:11 58
3 BE1 NFA 24 16 2 6 43:25 50
4 Neptunas 24 14 2 8 32:28 44
5 Zalgiris 2 24 13 4 7 38:31 43
6 Tauras Taurage 25 13 4 8 43:31 43
7 BFA Vilnius 24 13 3 8 38:34 42
8 Dainava Alytus 24 11 7 6 34:23 40
9 FK Atmosfera 23 8 5 10 36:32 29
10 Jonava 25 7 6 12 28:33 27
11 Hegelmann Litauen 2 25 7 1 17 30:56 22
12 Garliava 23 6 4 13 25:27 22
13 Transinvest 2 25 6 3 16 29:58 21
14 FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 23 6 1 16 20:36 19
15 Ekranas 24 4 2 18 23:52 14
16 Siauliai 2 24 3 5 16 21:54 14
Promotion - TOPLYGA 2027 (Main)
Promotion - TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga (Relegation)