Sport Picks
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Latvia
Latvian Cup Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils 
Match Events
12'
12'
Fokam J.
14'
14'
Kalnins M.
39'
39'
Traore A.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BFC Daugavpils
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to BFC Daugavpils lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
- Model gives BFC Daugavpils a 61% chance of winning this.
- BFC Daugavpils have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor BFC Daugavpils, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- BFC Daugavpils have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 5 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 2.62 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 11, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
1:2
Aug 14, 2026 Latvian Cup
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Jul 19, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
0:4
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 7, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
BFC Daugavpils Compare
Top Goalscorer Traore A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Ayebadiepreye D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Ogre United Compare
Top Goalscorer Kalnins M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
BFC Daugavpils 85 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
BFC Daugavpils Ogre United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BFC Daugavpils Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
BFC Daugavpils has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
BFC Daugavpils found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).
Scoring Trends
BFC Daugavpils VS Ogre United
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
BFC Daugavpils
(Home) 01 Nov
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0 Tukums 2000
25 Oct
Jelgava
0 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
19 Oct
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1 FK Auda Riga
11 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 2 BFC Daugavpils
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 0 Tukums 2000
19 Oct
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1 FK Auda Riga
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2 RFS
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3 FK Auda Riga
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1 Ogre United
Page 1 of 3
Ogre United
(Away) 01 Nov
Ogre United
0 : 0 Riga FC
25 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 4 FK Auda Riga
17 Oct
Grobina
3 : 2 Ogre United
11 Oct
Ogre United
1 : 2 BFC Daugavpils
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0 Super Nova
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Grobina
3 : 2 Ogre United
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0 Ogre United
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1 Ogre United
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1 Ogre United
09 Aug
Riga FC
4 : 1 Ogre United
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
RFK/RFS 0
Riga Mariners 11
Iecava 0
Alberts JDFS 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
LSPA 1
FK Smiltene 5
Valmiera 2
Skanste 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
JFC Viola 1
Marupe 2
Valka 1
Aliance 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
Upesciema Warriors 0
JFK Ventspils 3
DSVK Traktors 3
Leevon PPK 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
Lielupe 0
FK Metta 6
Kekava-Auda 2
Rezekne 1
Saldus NSS 0
Salaspils FK 4
Speks 6
FK Union / JFK Daugava 0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners 1
Alberts JDFS 0
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
FK Smiltene 1
Valmiera 4
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Marupe 4
Aliance 2
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
JFK Ventspils 1
Leevon PPK 3
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Metta 5
Kekava-Auda 0
Salaspils FK 1
Speks 3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners 3
BFC Daugavpils 4
Valmiera 2
Ogre United 4
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Liepaja 0
Marupe 0
Grobina 1
Tukums 2000 1
Super Nova 2
RFS 2
Jelgava 0
Leevon PPK 2
Riga FC 3
FK Metta 3
Speks 1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils 3
Ogre United 1
FK Auda Riga 3
Grobina 2
Super Nova 0
RFS 1
Riga FC 4
FK Metta 1
Semi-finals
BFC Daugavpils 2
FK Auda Riga 3
RFS 2
Riga FC 3
Final
FK Auda Riga -
Riga FC -
