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Stadium Background

BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils Logo

BFC Daugavpils

3 - 1
FT
Ogre United Logo

Ogre United

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Fokam J.
14' Event
Kalnins M.
39' Event
Traore A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
BFC Daugavpils
30%
Draws
12%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to BFC Daugavpils lately — more wins on the board than Ogre United.
  • Model gives BFC Daugavpils a 58% chance of winning this.
  • BFC Daugavpils have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor BFC Daugavpils, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • BFC Daugavpils have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFC Daugavpils Ogre United
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 20
Goals Scored 1.36 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.11 2.76
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Latvian Cup
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Jul 19, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
0:4
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
3:1
Apr 7, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Top Goalscorer Traore A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ayebadiepreye D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalnins M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFC Daugavpils 49 / 100
Ogre United 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFC Daugavpils Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFC Daugavpils Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 97% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Attacking prowess: BFC Daugavpils scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Solid form: BFC Daugavpils remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

BFC Daugavpils VS Ogre United
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.88
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

BFC Daugavpils

(Home)
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
Page 1 of 6

Ogre United

(Away)
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
Ogre United
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
RFK/RFS 0
Riga Mariners 11
Iecava 0
Alberts JDFS 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
LSPA 1
FK Smiltene 5
Valmiera 2
Skanste 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
JFC Viola 1
Marupe 2
Valka 1
Aliance 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
Upesciema Warriors 0
JFK Ventspils 3
DSVK Traktors 3
Leevon PPK 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
Lielupe 0
FK Metta 6
Kekava-Auda 2
Rezekne 1
Saldus NSS 0
Salaspils FK 4
Speks 6
FK Union / JFK Daugava 0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners 1
Alberts JDFS 0
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
FK Smiltene 1
Valmiera 4
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Marupe 4
Aliance 2
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
JFK Ventspils 1
Leevon PPK 3
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Metta 5
Kekava-Auda 0
Salaspils FK 1
Speks 3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners 3
BFC Daugavpils 4
Valmiera 2
Ogre United 4
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Liepaja 0
Marupe 0
Grobina 1
Tukums 2000 1
Super Nova 2
RFS 2
Jelgava 0
Leevon PPK 2
Riga FC 3
FK Metta 3
Speks 1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils 3
Ogre United 1
FK Auda Riga 3
Grobina 2
Super Nova 0
RFS 1
Riga FC 4
FK Metta 1
Semi-finals
BFC Daugavpils 2
FK Auda Riga 3
RFS 2
Riga FC 3
Final
FK Auda Riga -
Riga FC -