Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFC Daugavpils vs RFS

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Lemajic D.
Assist: Talla M.
46'
Sub
Mankenda G. In: Kigurs M.
Out: Mankenda G.
66'
Sub
Talla M. In: Kouadio A.
Out: Talla M.

AI Match Summary

RFS in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored RFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
BFC Daugavpils
20%
Draws
38%
RFS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: BFC Daugavpils

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to RFS lately — more wins on the board than BFC Daugavpils.
  • BFC Daugavpils are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors RFS here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 12%
RFS Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFC Daugavpils RFS
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 10 23
Draws 6 2
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 1.75 2.5
Goals Conceded 1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
3:1
May 13, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs RFS
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
4:1
Feb 28, 2026 Club Friendly
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemajic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFC Daugavpils 40 / 100
RFS 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFC Daugavpils RFS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

BFC Daugavpils found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

BFC Daugavpils has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

RFS let in goals in 44% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

BFC Daugavpils VS RFS
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BFC Daugavpils

(Home)
19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4
BFC Daugavpils
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4
BFC Daugavpils
04 Jul
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
FK Liepaja
30 Jun
RFS
3 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
25 Jun
BFC Daugavpils
0 : 0
Riga FC
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RFS

(Away)
16 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Glentoran
12 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Jelgava
09 Jul
Glentoran
1 : 2
RFS
04 Jul
RFS
1 : 1
FK Auda Riga
30 Jun
RFS
3 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Riga FC23184168:2058
2RFS22182254:1656
3FK Auda Riga22124637:2640
4BFC Daugavpils2386929:2930
5FK Liepaja22841028:3428
6Jelgava2267924:3825
7Super Nova22731223:3524
8Grobina22481015:3320
9Tukums 200023381238:4717
10Ogre United23341621:5913
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga 2027 (Main)