Sport Picks

Stadium Background

BFC Daugavpils vs RFS

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Stadions Celtnieks, Daugavpils
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Lemajic D.
Assist: Talla M.
46'
Sub
Mankenda G. In: Kigurs M.
Out: Mankenda G.
66'
Sub
Talla M. In: Kouadio A.
Out: Talla M.

AI Match Summary

RFS in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored RFS.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
BFC Daugavpils
44%
Draws
20%
RFS
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to RFS lately — more wins on the board than BFC Daugavpils.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors RFS here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 13%
RFS Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BFC Daugavpils RFS
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 25
Draws 6 2
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 1.63 2.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
3:1
May 13, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs RFS
0:1
Mar 21, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
4:1
Feb 28, 2026 Club Friendly
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
1:0
Sep 21, 2025 Virsliga
RFS vs BFC Daugavpils
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BFC Daugavpils Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Lemajic D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BFC Daugavpils 35 / 100
RFS 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BFC Daugavpils RFS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

BFC Daugavpils found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

BFC Daugavpils has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

RFS let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

BFC Daugavpils VS RFS
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

BFC Daugavpils

(Home)
19 Jul
Ogre United
0 : 4
BFC Daugavpils
11 Jul
Riga Mariners
3 : 4
BFC Daugavpils
04 Jul
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1
FK Liepaja
30 Jun
RFS
3 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
25 Jun
BFC Daugavpils
0 : 0
Riga FC
Page 1 of 6

RFS

(Away)
23 Jul
RFS
4 : 1
Vestri
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1
RFS
16 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Glentoran
12 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Jelgava
09 Jul
Glentoran
1 : 2
RFS
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1RFS23192255:1659
2Riga FC23184168:2058
3FK Auda Riga22124637:2640
4BFC Daugavpils2386929:2930
5FK Liepaja22841028:3428
6Super Nova23831225:3527
7Jelgava23671024:3925
8Grobina23481115:3520
9Tukums 200023381238:4717
10Ogre United23341621:5913
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga 2027 (Main)