Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bhutan vs Lebanon

Asia Asia

Asian Cup Changlimithang Stadium, Thimphu
Bhutan Logo

Bhutan

0 - 4
FT
Lebanon Logo

Lebanon

Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Fakhro M.
Assist: Haidar M.
16' Event
Chakroun H.
20' Event
Safwan M.
Assist: Fakhro M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-4. This leg finished 0-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Bhutan
15%
Draws
64%
Lebanon
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lebanon lately — more wins on the board than Bhutan.
  • Win probability leans Lebanon's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Lebanon arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Lebanon, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Lebanon here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Bhutan Clean Sheet 10%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bhutan Lebanon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 13
Draws 2 7
Losses 22 9
Goals Scored 0.55 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.66 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2025 Asian Cup
Bhutan vs Lebanon
0:4
Oct 9, 2025 Asian Cup
Lebanon vs Bhutan
2:0
Jun 25, 2023 SAFF Championship
Bhutan vs Lebanon
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bhutan Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.19

Lebanon Compare

Top Goalscorer Fakhro M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Chakroun H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bhutan 10 / 100
Lebanon 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bhutan Lebanon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.67 goals when they meet.

Bhutan's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Lebanon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Bhutan stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bhutan VS Lebanon
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
3 Goals Conceded 0.13
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bhutan

(Home)
08 Jun
Sri Lanka
4 : 1
Bhutan
04 Jun
Cambodia
4 : 0
Bhutan
31 Mar
Bhutan
2 : 1
Brunei
18 Nov
Yemen
7 : 1
Bhutan
13 Nov
India
6 : 1
Bhutan
Page 1 of 6

Lebanon

(Away)
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
14 Oct
Bhutan
0 : 4
Lebanon
09 Oct
Lebanon
2 : 0
Bhutan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tajikistan 6 4 2 0 14:3 14
2 Philippines 6 4 2 0 16:6 14
3 Maldives 6 1 0 5 3:13 3
4 Timor-Leste 6 1 0 5 4:15 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Yemen 6 4 2 0 20:1 14
2 Lebanon 6 4 1 1 14:2 13
3 Bhutan 6 1 1 4 4:16 4
4 Brunei 6 1 0 5 3:22 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Singapore 6 4 2 0 8:4 14
2 Hong Kong 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Bangladesh 6 1 2 3 6:8 5
4 India 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Thailand 6 5 0 1 16:5 15
2 Turkmenistan 6 4 0 2 11:7 12
3 Sri Lanka 6 3 0 3 8:9 9
4 Chinese Taipei 6 0 0 6 5:19 0
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Syria 6 6 0 0 21:2 18
2 Myanmar 6 4 0 2 8:11 12
3 Afghanistan 6 0 2 4 4:11 2
4 Pakistan 6 0 2 4 2:11 2
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vietnam 6 6 0 0 17:2 18
2 Malaysia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 Laos 6 2 0 4 4:16 6
4 Nepal 6 1 0 5 5:8 3
Promotion - Asian Cup (Main)