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Birkenhead vs Wellington Phoenix 2

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Patterson M.
48' Event
Candy L.
55' Event
Patterson M.

AI Match Summary

Birkenhead in this National League 2024 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Birkenhead.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Birkenhead
15%
Draws
34%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Birkenhead

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Birkenhead have won more games recently than Wellington Phoenix 2.
  • Model gives Birkenhead a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular National League 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
  • History favors Birkenhead here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 14%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birkenhead Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 18 11
Draws 3 2
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 2.3 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.91 2.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Birkenhead
2:3
Oct 27, 2024 National League
Birkenhead vs Wellington Phoenix 2
4:2
Nov 27, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Birkenhead
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Birkenhead Compare

Top Goalscorer Patterson M.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Candy L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ball D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birkenhead 39 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birkenhead Wellington Phoenix 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Birkenhead Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Birkenhead scored in 94% of their last 33 outings.

Wellington Phoenix 2 has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 5.67 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Birkenhead remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Birkenhead VS Wellington Phoenix 2
1.75 Goals Scored 1
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Birkenhead

(Home)
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1
Western Springs
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4
Miramar
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2
Birkenhead
09 Nov
Birkenhead
3 : 0
Christchurch
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Wellington Phoenix 2

(Away)
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0
Coastal Spirit
09 Nov
Western Springs
3 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Birkenhead 9 6 2 1 23:16 20
2 Auckland City 9 6 1 2 20:10 19
3 Western Springs 9 6 0 3 25:16 18
4 Napier City 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
5 Wellington Phoenix 2 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
6 Wellington Olympic 9 3 2 4 17:15 11
7 Coastal Spirit 9 3 2 4 18:20 11
8 Cashmere Technical 9 2 3 4 16:18 9
9 Eastern Suburbs 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Western Suburbs 9 1 1 7 9:28 4
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)