Sport Picks

Birmingham vs Leeds Prediction & H2H Stats

England

FA Cup 2025/2026 St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

Birmingham

Sun, Feb 15, 2026

1 - 2

12:00 PM

Leeds

Our Tip

Match Events

30'

Solis Romero J. E.

42'

Vicente C.

46'

Sub

Buonanotte F. In: Ampadu E.

Out: Buonanotte F.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this FA Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Birmingham

35%

Draws

32%

Leeds

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Leeds lately — more wins on the board than Birmingham.
36% — that's where the model lands on Birmingham taking it.
Leeds arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Leeds, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Leeds here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%

Birmingham Clean Sheet 11%

Leeds Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Birmingham	Leeds
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	13	14
Draws	8	9
Losses	9	7
Goals Scored	1.37	1.63
Goals Conceded	1.33	1.1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 FA Cup

Birmingham vs Leeds

1:2

Jan 1, 2024 Championship

Leeds vs Birmingham

3:0

Aug 12, 2023 Championship

Birmingham vs Leeds

1:0

Dec 29, 2019 Championship

Birmingham vs Leeds

4:5

Oct 19, 2019 Championship

Leeds vs Birmingham

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Birmingham Compare

Top Goalscorer Roberts P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Nmecha L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.65

Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birmingham 35 / 100

Leeds 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Birmingham Leeds

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birmingham found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Leeds conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Birmingham remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Birmingham VS Leeds

1.25 Goals Scored 1.88

1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Birmingham

(Home)

19 Sept

Birmingham

2 : 2

Middlesbrough

12 Sept

Derby

1 : 2

Birmingham

09 Sept

Norwich

2 : 1

Birmingham

06 Sept

Birmingham

2 : 2

Wolves

01 Sept

Birmingham

1 : 1

Southampton

Page 1 of 6

Leeds

(Away)

20 Sept

Leeds

0 : 0

Crystal Palace

14 Sept

Leeds

4 : 1

Newcastle Utd

09 Sept

Chelsea

6 : 3

Leeds

05 Sept

Brighton

1 : 1

Leeds

30 Aug

Leeds

1 : 1

Brentford

Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 1

Scunthorpe 0

Reading 2

Carlisle 3

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 5

Maldon & Tiptree 1

Bromley 1

Bristol Rovers 2

Fleetwood Town 2

Barnet 1

Luton 4

Forest Green 3

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Colchester 2

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 3

Northampton 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Crawley Town 0

Newport 3

Gillingham 2

Brackley 3

Notts County 2

Burton 6

St. Albans 0

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 2

Altrincham 1

Macclesfield 6

AFC Totton 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Tranmere 1

Stockport County 3

Cambridge Utd 3

Chester 0

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

AFC Wimbledon 0

Gateshead 2

Eastleigh 0

Walsall 3

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Halifax 0

Exeter 2

Wycombe 2

Plymouth 0

Salford 2

Lincoln City 1

Tamworth 0

Leyton Orient 1

Rotherham 1

Swindon 2

Bolton 2

Huddersfield 1

Grimsby 3

Ebbsfleet 1

Wealdstone 1

Southend 0

Chelmsford 4

Braintree 1

Weston-super-Mare 2

Aldershot 1

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 2

Telford 1

South Shields 1

Shrewsbury 3

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 1

Cardiff 0

Barnsley 3

York City 2

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Stevenage 0

Chesterfield 1

Crewe 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 1

Bradford City 0

Buxton 2

Chatham 1

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Gainsborough 1

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Harrogate 2

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 2

Hemel Hempstead 1

Spennymoor 0

Barrow 2

1/64-finals

Wrexham -

TBD -

Nottingham -

Ipswich -

TBD -

Blackpool 4

Carlisle 1

Hull City -

TBD -

Blackburn -

Charlton -

TBD -

Chelsea -

Port Vale 1

Bristol Rovers 0

Fleetwood Town 3

Luton 2

Bristol City -

TBD -

Watford -

Milton Keynes Dons 3

Oldham 1

TBD -

Oxford Utd -

Everton -

TBD -

Sunderland -

Boreham Wood 3

Newport 0

Brackley 1

Burton 3

West Ham -

TBD -

QPR -

Slough Town 1

Macclesfield 3

TBD -

Crystal Palace -

Sheffield Wed -

TBD -

Brentford -

Stockport County 0

Cambridge Utd 1

TBD -

Birmingham -

Derby -

TBD -

Leeds -

Norwich -

TBD -

Gateshead 0

Walsall 2

Swansea -

TBD -

West Brom -

Tottenham -

TBD -

Aston Villa -

Newcastle Utd -

TBD -

Bournemouth -

Manchester City -

TBD -

Exeter 4

Wycombe 0

Salford 4

Leyton Orient 0

Swindon 4

Bolton 0

Grimsby 4

Wealdstone 0

Chelmsford 0

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves -

TBD -

Sutton 1

Shrewsbury 2

Liverpool -

TBD -

Peterborough 0

Barnsley 1

Manchester United -

TBD -

Brighton -

Stoke City -

TBD -

Coventry -

Fulham -

TBD -

Middlesbrough -

Chesterfield 1

Doncaster 2

TBD -

Southampton -

Cheltenham 6

Buxton 2

TBD -

Leicester -

Burnley -

TBD -

Millwall -

Sheffield Utd -

TBD -

Accrington 2

Mansfield 3

Portsmouth -

TBD -

Arsenal -

Preston -

TBD -

Wigan 3

Barrow 2

1/32-finals

Wrexham 4

Nottingham 3

Ipswich 2

Blackpool 1

Hull City 1

Blackburn 0

Charlton 1

Chelsea 5

Port Vale 1

Fleetwood Town 0

Bristol City 5

Watford 1

Milton Keynes Dons 1

Oxford Utd 2

Everton 1

Sunderland 2

Boreham Wood 0

Burton 5

West Ham 2

QPR 1

Macclesfield 2

Crystal Palace 1

Sheffield Wed 0

Brentford 2

Cambridge Utd 2

Birmingham 3

Derby 1

Leeds 3

Norwich 5

Walsall 1

Swansea 2

West Brom 3

Tottenham 1

Aston Villa 2

Newcastle Utd 4

Bournemouth 3

Manchester City 10

Exeter 1

Salford 3

Swindon 2

Grimsby 3

Weston-super-Mare 2

Wolves 6

Shrewsbury 1

Liverpool 4

Barnsley 1

Manchester United 1

Brighton 2

Stoke City 1

Coventry 0

Fulham 3

Middlesbrough 1

Doncaster 2

Southampton 3

Cheltenham 0

Leicester 2

Burnley 5

Millwall 1

Sheffield Utd 3

Mansfield 4

Portsmouth 1

Arsenal 4

Preston 0

Wigan 1

1/16-finals

Wrexham 1

Ipswich 0

Hull City 0

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Bristol City 0

Oxford Utd 0

Sunderland 1

Burton 0

West Ham 1

Macclesfield 0

Brentford 1

Birmingham 1

Leeds 2

Norwich 3

West Brom 1

Aston Villa 1

Newcastle Utd 3

Manchester City 2

Salford 0

Grimsby 0

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Brighton 0

Stoke City 1

Fulham 2

Southampton 2

Leicester 1

Burnley 1

Mansfield 2

Arsenal 4

Wigan 0

1/8-finals

Wrexham 2

Chelsea 4

Port Vale 1

Sunderland 0

West Ham 3

Brentford 2

Leeds 3

Norwich 0

Newcastle Utd 1

Manchester City 3

Wolves 1

Liverpool 3

Fulham 0

Southampton 1

Mansfield 1

Arsenal 2

Quarter-finals

Chelsea 7

Port Vale 0

West Ham 2

Leeds 3

Manchester City 4

Liverpool 0

Southampton 2

Arsenal 1

Semi-finals

Chelsea 1

Leeds 0

Manchester City 2

Southampton 1

Final

Chelsea 0

Manchester City 1

Birmingham vs Leeds Prediction & H2H Stats

England

Birmingham

Leeds

Match Events

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

Key Player Impact Analysis

Birmingham Compare

Leeds Compare

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Birmingham

Leeds

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Install Sokapicks PWA