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Birmingham vs QPR - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Birmingham host QPR in the Championship. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Birmingham at 1.39 goals for, 1.21 against; QPR at 1.57 for, 1.29 against. Head-to-head, Birmingham have won 2 to QPR's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 11, 2026, ending 1:0. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.56) point toward Birmingham. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Birmingham
35%
Draws
22%
QPR
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Birmingham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Birmingham lately — more wins on the board than QPR.
  • 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Birmingham Clean Sheet 15%
QPR Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Birmingham QPR
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.39 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 11, 2026 Championship
Birmingham vs QPR
1:0
Dec 9, 2025 Championship
QPR vs Birmingham
2:1
Mar 29, 2024 Championship
QPR vs Birmingham
2:1
Sep 22, 2023 Championship
Birmingham vs QPR
0:0
Mar 18, 2023 Championship
QPR vs Birmingham
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Birmingham 30 / 100
QPR 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Birmingham QPR

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Birmingham Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Birmingham's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: QPR conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Birmingham went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Birmingham VS QPR
1.63 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Birmingham

(Home)
10 Oct
West Brom
0 : 1
Birmingham
19 Sept
Birmingham
2 : 2
Middlesbrough
12 Sept
Derby
1 : 2
Birmingham
09 Sept
Norwich
2 : 1
Birmingham
06 Sept
Birmingham
2 : 2
Wolves
Page 1 of 6

QPR

(Away)
09 Oct
West Ham
1 : 1
QPR
19 Sept
QPR
2 : 2
Preston
12 Sept
West Brom
1 : 1
QPR
09 Sept
Charlton
0 : 0
QPR
05 Sept
QPR
0 : 1
Middlesbrough
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Swansea 9 6 2 1 15:7 20
2 Middlesbrough 9 5 3 1 17:12 18
3 West Ham 9 4 4 1 23:12 16
4 Stoke City 9 5 1 3 15:13 16
5 Wolves 8 4 2 2 15:11 14
6 QPR 9 3 5 1 11:8 14
7 Birmingham 9 3 5 1 13:11 14
8 Millwall 9 4 2 3 16:15 14
9 West Brom 9 4 2 3 10:9 14
10 Bristol City 9 4 2 3 12:13 14
11 Charlton 9 3 4 2 8:11 13
12 Blackburn 9 3 3 3 14:13 12
13 Sheffield Utd 9 3 3 3 12:11 12
14 Wrexham 9 2 5 2 10:13 11
15 Lincoln City 9 3 2 4 7:11 11
16 Southampton 8 4 2 2 19:10 10
17 Bolton 9 3 1 5 12:17 10
18 Norwich 9 3 0 6 17:19 9
19 Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 9:10 8
20 Watford 9 2 2 5 7:14 8
21 Cardiff 9 1 4 4 11:14 7
22 Burnley 9 1 4 4 13:17 7
23 Derby 9 1 3 5 8:15 6
24 Preston 9 1 1 7 8:16 4
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)