Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Bulgarian Cup Bistritsa Stadium

Gorna

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Bistritsa play Gorna in the Bulgarian Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bistritsa averaged 1.07 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Gorna averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. In past meetings, Bistritsa won 1, Gorna won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 12, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.85 for Bistritsa and 1.94 for Gorna. This points to a Bistritsa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Bistritsa

18%

Draws

38%

Gorna

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Bistritsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Bistritsa picked up more points recently compared to Gorna.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.85 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 76%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Bistritsa Clean Sheet 10%

Gorna Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Bistritsa	Gorna
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	10	7
Draws	1	6
Losses	19	16
Goals Scored	1.07	0.97
Goals Conceded	2.07	1.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	3.00	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2025 Bulgarian Cup

Bistritsa vs Gorna

Possession: 43% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Apr 3, 2021 Vtora liga

Gorna vs Bistritsa

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Sep 26, 2020 Vtora liga

Bistritsa vs Gorna

Possession: 44% - 43% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bistritsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarafski L.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Gorna Compare

Top Goalscorer Kolev G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bistritsa 42 / 100

Gorna 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Bistritsa Gorna

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bistritsa or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.7%

1.43

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bistritsa attacking → ← attacking Gorna

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bistritsa scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Gorna let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.33 goals.

Bistritsa went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Gorna lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 27

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50