Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Blauw Geel vs Dongen

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie
Sun, Sep 20, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Blauw Geel host Dongen in the Derde Divisie. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Dongen have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Blauw Geel have conceded 1.77 and scored 1.39. Past meetings favor Dongen slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 8, 2023, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 2.13) point toward Dongen. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Blauw Geel
20%
Draws
44%
Dongen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Dongen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Dongen lately — more wins on the board than Blauw Geel.
  • Win probability leans Blauw Geel's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Blauw Geel Clean Sheet 10%
Dongen Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Blauw Geel Dongen
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 8 11
Draws 9 5
Losses 14 15
Goals Scored 1.39 1.61
Goals Conceded 1.77 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Derde Divisie
Dongen vs Blauw Geel
1:1
Oct 16, 2022 Derde Divisie
Blauw Geel vs Dongen
2:0
May 29, 2022 Derde Divisie
Blauw Geel vs Dongen
0:2
Oct 10, 2021 Derde Divisie
Dongen vs Blauw Geel
2:1
Feb 28, 2021 Derde Divisie
Dongen vs Blauw Geel
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Blauw Geel 47 / 100
Dongen 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Blauw Geel Dongen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Blauw Geel Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dongen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

Blauw Geel's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Blauw Geel went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Blauw Geel VS Dongen
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Blauw Geel

(Home)
12 Sept
Roosendaal
1 : 3
Blauw Geel
06 Sept
Blauw Geel
2 : 2
GOES
01 Sept
Sportlust
3 : 1
Blauw Geel
29 Aug
Achilles Veen
3 : 2
Blauw Geel
23 Aug
Blauw Geel
0 : 0
Rijnvogels
Page 1 of 7

Dongen

(Away)
13 Sept
Dongen
2 : 3
GOES
05 Sept
Rijnvogels
5 : 2
Dongen
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 Aug
Dongen
3 : 2
Gemert
23 Aug
EVV
2 : 3
Dongen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Genemuiden 5 5 0 0 14:3 15
2 ACV Assen 5 4 1 0 12:2 13
3 Harkemase Boys 5 4 1 0 11:6 13
4 VV Scherpenzeel 5 4 0 1 10:7 12
5 Excelsior 31 5 3 1 1 14:6 10
6 Sportlust 5 2 3 0 12:9 9
7 Purmersteijn 5 2 2 1 9:6 8
8 TEC 5 2 1 2 13:12 7
9 VV Hoogeveen 5 2 1 2 12:11 7
10 ADO 20 Heemskerk 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
11 Sparta Nijkerk 5 1 2 2 13:14 5
12 VV DOVO 5 1 2 2 8:11 5
13 Staphorst 5 0 3 2 6:9 3
14 Eemdijk 5 1 0 4 7:15 3
15 USV Hercules 5 1 0 4 6:16 3
16 DVS '33 Ermelo 5 0 2 3 7:11 2
17 HVV Hollandia 5 0 1 4 12:18 1
18 SVZW Wierden 5 0 1 4 8:18 1
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lisse 5 5 0 0 11:4 15
2 VV Noordwijk 5 4 1 0 9:0 13
3 Rijnvogels 5 3 2 0 15:6 11
4 RKSV UDI 19 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
5 SV Poortugaal 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
6 Dongen 5 3 0 2 14:12 9
7 Excelsior Maassluis 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
8 GOES 5 2 2 1 11:12 8
9 Roosendaal 5 2 0 3 7:6 6
10 Gemert 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
11 UNA 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
12 Blauw Geel 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
13 Groene Ster 5 1 2 2 9:12 5
14 VVSB 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
15 VV Zwaluwen 5 1 1 3 3:9 4
16 Achilles Veen 5 1 0 4 6:16 3
17 TOGB 5 0 2 3 8:12 2
18 EVV 5 0 0 5 6:15 0
Promotion - Tweede Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Tweede Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Derde Divisie (Relegation)