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Blumenau vs Caravaggio

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Otavio
67' Event
Vinicius Jau
83' Event
Evaristo

AI Match Summary

The Catarinense 2 game between Blumenau and Caravaggio finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Blumenau
30%
Draws
51%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Blumenau carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Caravaggio taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 10%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Blumenau Caravaggio
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 16 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.62 1.84
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 24, 2026 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Caravaggio
1:2
Apr 29, 2026 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Blumenau
1:3
Jun 16, 2024 Catarinense 2
Caravaggio vs Blumenau
3:1
Jun 26, 2022 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Caravaggio
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Blumenau Compare

Top Goalscorer Vinicius Jau
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Caravaggio Compare

Top Goalscorer Otavio
1 Goals
Assists Leader Evaristo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Blumenau 10 / 100
Caravaggio 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Blumenau Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Blumenau scored in 68% of their last 34 outings.

Defensive concern: Caravaggio conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Recent resilience: Blumenau stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Blumenau VS Caravaggio
1.5 Goals Scored 2.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Blumenau

(Home)
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
22 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Nacao
19 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 1
Blumenau
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Caravaggio

(Away)
25 Jul
Caravaggio
3 : 1
Gremio Juventus
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)