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Bogota vs Cartagena

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Primera B encounter between Bogota and Cartagena promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Bogota averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Cartagena shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Bogota, 5 wins for Cartagena, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 18.05.26 ended in a 1:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.25 for Bogota and 1.13 for Cartagena, suggesting the primary value lies in the Cartagena double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Bogota
23%
Draws
49%
Cartagena
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Bogota picked up more points recently compared to Cartagena.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Bogota Clean Sheet 21%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bogota Cartagena
Matches Played 31 35
Wins 8 14
Draws 9 13
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 0.81 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

18.05.26 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
1:2
02.05.26 Primera B
Cartagena vs Bogota
2:0
09.02.26 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
0:1
21.07.25 Primera B
Bogota vs Cartagena
0:3
09.02.25 Primera B
Cartagena vs Bogota
5:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Bogota

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Cartagena

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bogota Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A
0 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Cartagena Compare

Top Goalscorer Aleman J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bogota 29 / 100
Cartagena 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bogota Cartagena

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Cartagena or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Cartagena will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.

Bogota 31%
Cartagena 39%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Bogota will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Cartagena's early runs.

Bogota 27%
Cartagena 51%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Expect Cartagena to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as Bogota tries to push forward.

Bogota 28%
Cartagena 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will see Cartagena increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.

Bogota 29%
Cartagena 47%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Fatigue may set in for Bogota's defense, opening up opportunities for Cartagena's forward line.

Bogota 25%
Cartagena 54%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Expect Cartagena to manage the closing stages, while Bogota searches for late drama.

Bogota 32%
Cartagena 56%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bogota attacking → ← attacking Cartagena

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bogota have found the net in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Cartagena have conceded at least one goal in 66% of their last 35 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.80 goals per match.

Bogota remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Cartagena suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 55
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Inter Palmira15122129:1338
2Union Magdalena15102327:1532
3Quindio1594220:1031
4Envigado1592424:1429
5Cartagena1575323:1526
6Bogota1565416:1423
7Barranquilla1562721:2020
8Tigres Futbol Club1555515:1420
9Ind. Yumbo1547413:1419
10Orsomarso1545613:1717
11Patriotas1545613:1717
12Boca Juniors de Cali1527615:2013
13Real Cundinamarca1527614:1913
14Leones152498:2410
15Atletico F.C.1516812:239
16Real Santander1514109:237