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Bogota vs Union Magdalena - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogotá
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Aladesanmi K.
44'
Mera D.
58'
Sub
Arrieta G. In: Farias J.
Out: Arrieta G.

AI Match Summary

The Primera B game between Bogota and Union Magdalena finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bogota.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Bogota
35%
Draws
42%
Union Magdalena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Union Magdalena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Union Magdalena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Primera B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Bogota Clean Sheet 19%
Union Magdalena Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bogota Union Magdalena
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 11
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.86 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Primera B
Bogota vs Union Magdalena
1:0
May 21, 2026 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Bogota
0:0
Apr 27, 2026 Primera B
Bogota vs Union Magdalena
1:1
Jan 26, 2026 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Bogota
0:0
Jul 25, 2024 Primera B
Union Magdalena vs Bogota
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bogota Compare

Top Goalscorer Aladesanmi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Union Magdalena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bogota 32 / 100
Union Magdalena 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bogota Union Magdalena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Union Magdalena has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Bogota has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Bogota's goal record stands at 59% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Bogota VS Union Magdalena
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bogota

(Home)
05 Oct
Bogota
3 : 3
Envigado
28 Sept
Quindio
1 : 0
Bogota
21 Sept
Bogota
2 : 1
Barranquilla
14 Sept
Tigres Futbol Club
0 : 0
Bogota
04 Sept
Bogota
0 : 2
Independiente Valle del Cauca
Page 1 of 6

Union Magdalena

(Away)
07 Oct
Boca Juniors de Cali
1 : 1
Union Magdalena
03 Oct
Real Santander
1 : 3
Union Magdalena
29 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Cartagena
25 Sept
Union Magdalena
1 : 1
Santa Fe
18 Sept
Patriotas
1 : 2
Union Magdalena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente Valle del Cauca 12 7 3 2 16:7 24
2 Real Cundinamarca 12 7 2 3 19:11 23
3 Tigres Futbol Club 12 6 4 2 14:5 22
4 Boca Juniors de Cali 11 5 3 3 18:14 18
5 Patriotas 11 5 2 4 17:17 17
6 Cartagena 12 4 4 4 21:16 16
7 Quindio 11 4 4 3 9:8 16
8 Atletico F.C. 12 4 3 5 15:19 15
9 Real Santander 12 3 6 3 14:18 15
10 Inter Palmira 11 4 2 5 8:12 14
11 Envigado 11 2 6 3 12:11 12
12 Union Magdalena 11 3 3 5 10:12 12
13 Bogota 11 3 3 5 9:13 12
14 Orsomarso 11 2 4 5 7:11 10
15 Leones 11 2 4 5 8:17 10
16 Barranquilla 11 2 3 6 11:17 9
Promotion - Primera B (Clausura - Quadrangular)