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Bohemians vs Dundalk

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Dalymount Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bohemians play Dundalk in the Premier Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bohemians averaged 1.59 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Dundalk averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Bohemians won 2, Dundalk won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 19, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Bohemians and 1.69 for Dundalk. This points to a Bohemians double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Bohemians
34%
Draws
32%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Bohemians

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Bohemians picked up more points recently compared to Dundalk.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Bohemians Clean Sheet 13%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bohemians Dundalk
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.59 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 Premier Division
Bohemians vs Dundalk
1:2
May 8, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Bohemians
1:3
Mar 20, 2026 Premier Division
Bohemians vs Dundalk
1:1
Sep 27, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Bohemians
0:2
Jul 26, 2024 Premier Division
Bohemians vs Dundalk
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bohemians Compare

Top Goalscorer Hickey P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Dundalk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bohemians 33 / 100
Dundalk 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bohemians Dundalk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bohemians or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bohemians attacking → ← attacking Dundalk

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bohemians scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Dundalk let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Bohemians went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dundalk lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 48
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Shamrock Rovers24145538:2147
2Bohemians24117638:2740
3St. Patricks22115635:1938
4Dundalk2298536:3235
5Shelbourne23710633:3431
6Derry City24611730:2729
7Galway United2166929:3424
8Drogheda22571027:3822
9Sligo Rovers22551217:3520
10Waterford22381128:4417