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Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi

Bolivia Bolivia

Copa Pacena Estadio Hernando Siles
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bolivar play Nacional Potosi in the Copa Pacena. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bolivar averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Nacional Potosi averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Bolivar won 3, Nacional Potosi won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Bolivar and 0.69 for Nacional Potosi. This points to a Bolivar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Bolivar
20%
Draws
35%
Nacional Potosi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bolivar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Bolivar picked up more points recently compared to Nacional Potosi.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Bolivar Clean Sheet 28%
Nacional Potosi Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolivar Nacional Potosi
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.33 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Division Profesional
Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi
1:1
Dec 22, 2025 Copa Pacena
Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi
1:4
Dec 20, 2025 Copa Pacena
Nacional Potosi vs Bolivar
0:2
Dec 5, 2025 Division Profesional
Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi
5:2
Jul 10, 2025 Copa Pacena
Bolivar vs Nacional Potosi
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolivar Compare

Top Goalscorer Cauteruccio M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Nacional Potosi Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez W.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guerra S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolivar 46 / 100
Nacional Potosi 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolivar Nacional Potosi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bolivar or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bolivar attacking → ← attacking Nacional Potosi

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bolivar scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Nacional Potosi let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Bolivar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Nacional Potosi lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 47
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13