Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bolnisi vs FC Gareji Sagarejo

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 Tamaz Stepania Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bolnisi play FC Gareji Sagarejo in the Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2. It looks like a close match. Recently, Bolnisi averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. FC Gareji Sagarejo averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Bolnisi won 1, FC Gareji Sagarejo won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Bolnisi and 1.25 for FC Gareji Sagarejo. This points to a FC Gareji Sagarejo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Bolnisi
31%
Draws
37%
FC Gareji Sagarejo
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: FC Gareji Sagarejo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Bolnisi picked up more points recently compared to FC Gareji Sagarejo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Bolnisi Clean Sheet 19%
FC Gareji Sagarejo Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolnisi FC Gareji Sagarejo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Bolnisi vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
1:1
Apr 7, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Bolnisi
2:0
Nov 22, 2024 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Bolnisi vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
2:2
Sep 14, 2024 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
FC Gareji Sagarejo vs Bolnisi
3:0
May 28, 2024 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Bolnisi vs FC Gareji Sagarejo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolnisi Compare

Top Goalscorer Asamoah B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FC Gareji Sagarejo Compare

Top Goalscorer Tchikaidze I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolnisi 33 / 100
FC Gareji Sagarejo 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolnisi FC Gareji Sagarejo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Gareji Sagarejo or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Bolnisi attacking → ← attacking FC Gareji Sagarejo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bolnisi scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

FC Gareji Sagarejo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Bolnisi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FC Gareji Sagarejo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 49
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FC Gareji Sagarejo19116224:1239
2Telavi19105422:1535
3Merani Martvili1986523:2030
4Shturmi1969417:1427
5Dusheti1974818:2325
6Bolnisi1967625:2025
7Odishi 19191966723:2624
8Kolkheti 19131946924:2418
9Gori1937913:2416
10Samtredia19441125:3616