Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bologna vs Lecce

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Freuler R.
36'
Ngom O.
38'
Siebert J.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between Bologna and Lecce finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bologna.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Bologna
15%
Draws
37%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Bologna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bologna come out ahead of Lecce on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Bologna Clean Sheet 68%
Lecce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bologna Lecce
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.24 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Bologna
2:2
Feb 9, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Bologna
0:0
Nov 2, 2024 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
1:0
Feb 11, 2024 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bologna Compare

Top Goalscorer Freuler R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Orsolini R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bologna 41 / 100
Lecce 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bologna Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bologna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bologna found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Lecce let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Bologna has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bologna VS Lecce
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bologna

(Home)
15 Aug
Brighton
1 : 0
Bologna
08 Aug
Bologna
1 : 4
Pisa
01 Aug
Bologna
3 : 1
Cambuur
01 Aug
Bologna
3 : 1
Cambuur
25 Jul
Bologna
2 : 0
Iraklis FC
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Lecce

(Away)
17 Aug
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0
Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2
Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2
Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1
Politehnica Timisoara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)