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Bolton vs Cardiff - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Championship Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Davies B.
32'
Dong K.
37'
Iling Junior S.

AI Match Summary

Bolton in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bolton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Bolton
30%
Draws
37%
Cardiff
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Cardiff

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Cardiff at 2 per game, Bolton at 1.52.
  • 37% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Bolton Clean Sheet 10%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolton Cardiff
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 9
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.52 2
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Bolton vs Cardiff
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 League One
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Bolton vs Cardiff
1:0
Feb 13, 2018 Championship
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Dec 23, 2017 Championship
Bolton vs Cardiff
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolton Compare

Top Goalscorer Gale T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Cardiff Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolton 30 / 100
Cardiff 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolton Cardiff

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cardiff Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Bolton's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Bolton stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bolton VS Cardiff
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Bolton

(Home)
03 Nov
Charlton
0 : 1
Bolton
31 Oct
Bolton
2 : 3
Bristol City
23 Oct
Bolton
1 : 5
Middlesbrough
17 Oct
Southampton
0 : 0
Bolton
13 Oct
Wolves
1 : 3
Bolton
Page 1 of 6

Cardiff

(Away)
04 Nov
Cardiff
3 : 3
West Ham
31 Oct
Wolves
3 : 0
Cardiff
24 Oct
Cardiff
1 : 0
Birmingham
17 Oct
Middlesbrough
2 : 2
Cardiff
13 Oct
Cardiff
5 : 1
Watford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Middlesbrough 14 8 4 2 30:19 28
2 Wolves 14 8 3 3 25:17 27
3 Birmingham 14 7 5 2 26:13 26
4 Stoke City 14 8 2 4 22:17 26
5 Swansea 14 8 2 4 21:16 26
6 West Brom 14 7 4 3 20:15 25
7 Southampton 14 8 4 2 29:14 24
8 West Ham 14 6 5 3 36:21 23
9 Sheffield Utd 14 6 4 4 20:17 22
10 Portsmouth 14 6 4 4 19:16 22
11 QPR 14 5 6 3 22:17 21
12 Norwich 14 6 0 8 27:24 18
13 Millwall 14 5 3 6 23:24 18
14 Blackburn 14 5 3 6 20:22 18
15 Bristol City 14 5 3 6 16:19 18
16 Wrexham 14 4 5 5 17:19 17
17 Bolton 14 5 2 7 19:26 17
18 Cardiff 14 3 6 5 22:23 15
19 Lincoln City 14 4 3 7 14:24 15
20 Watford 14 4 2 8 13:23 14
21 Charlton 14 3 5 6 11:22 14
22 Burnley 14 1 7 6 18:26 10
23 Derby 14 1 4 9 11:29 7
24 Preston 14 1 2 11 12:30 5
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)