Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Bolton vs Cardiff

England England

Championship Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Davies B.
32'
Dong K.
37'
Iling Junior S.

AI Match Summary

Bolton in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bolton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Bolton
20%
Draws
32%
Cardiff
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bolton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Cardiff lately — more wins on the board than Bolton.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Bolton Clean Sheet 13%
Cardiff Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bolton Cardiff
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.59 2.13
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Championship
Bolton vs Cardiff
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 League One
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Bolton vs Cardiff
1:0
Feb 13, 2018 Championship
Cardiff vs Bolton
2:0
Dec 23, 2017 Championship
Bolton vs Cardiff
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bolton Compare

Top Goalscorer Gale T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Cardiff Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bolton 31 / 100
Cardiff 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bolton Cardiff

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Cardiff's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Bolton's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Cardiff's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bolton VS Cardiff
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Bolton

(Home)
12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0
Cardiff
08 Sept
Bolton
2 : 3
West Ham
05 Sept
Millwall
4 : 0
Bolton
01 Sept
Sheffield Utd
3 : 2
Bolton
29 Aug
Bolton
0 : 1
Lincoln City
Page 1 of 6

Cardiff

(Away)
12 Sept
Bolton
1 : 0
Cardiff
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1
Stoke City
05 Sept
Portsmouth
2 : 0
Cardiff
02 Sept
QPR
2 : 1
Cardiff
29 Aug
Cardiff
2 : 2
Sheffield Utd
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 West Ham 7 4 2 1 20:9 14
2 Swansea 7 4 2 1 11:5 14
3 West Brom 7 4 2 1 10:7 14
4 Middlesbrough 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
5 QPR 7 3 3 1 8:5 12
6 Charlton 7 3 3 1 6:7 12
7 Wolves 6 3 2 1 14:10 11
8 Southampton 7 4 2 1 18:8 10
9 Birmingham 7 2 4 1 10:9 10
10 Stoke City 7 3 1 3 11:11 10
11 Bristol City 6 3 1 2 10:11 10
12 Norwich 7 3 0 4 13:13 9
13 Millwall 6 3 0 3 11:11 9
14 Sheffield Utd 7 2 3 2 8:9 9
15 Blackburn 7 2 2 3 10:10 8
16 Lincoln City 6 2 2 2 5:6 8
17 Watford 7 2 2 3 7:9 8
18 Portsmouth 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
19 Wrexham 7 1 4 2 7:11 7
20 Bolton 7 2 1 4 7:12 7
21 Cardiff 7 0 4 3 7:11 4
22 Derby 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
23 Preston 7 1 0 6 6:13 3
24 Burnley 7 0 3 4 8:16 3
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)