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Bonsucesso vs Goncalense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
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Match Events

81' Event
Luciano
90' Event
Matheus Goiano

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Bonsucesso
30%
Draws
23%
Goncalense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bonsucesso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Bonsucesso have won more games recently than Goncalense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 19%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bonsucesso Goncalense
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 13 10
Draws 10 9
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.09 0.84
Goals Conceded 0.91 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Goncalense
1:1
Nov 21, 2020 Carioca 2
Bonsucesso vs Goncalense
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Goncalense Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Goiano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bonsucesso 42 / 100
Goncalense 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bonsucesso Goncalense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bonsucesso's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Defensive concern: Goncalense conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Bonsucesso has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Bonsucesso VS Goncalense
0.63 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bonsucesso

(Home)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
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Goncalense

(Away)
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
05 Nov
Goncalense
1 : 0
Artsul
01 Nov
Bonsucesso
1 : 1
Goncalense
25 Oct
Serrano FC
2 : 1
Goncalense
18 Oct
Goncalense
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)