Sport Picks
Match Events
23'
23'
Geovane Maranhao
35'
35'
Caua Coutinho
53'
53'
Leo Pedro
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
35%
28%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bonsucesso
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Bonsucesso lately — more wins on the board than Madureira.
- Model gives Bonsucesso a 42% chance of winning this.
- Bonsucesso have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 20%
Madureira Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bonsucesso | Madureira |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 1.45 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 22, 2026 Copa Rio
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
2:1
Jul 15, 2026 Copa Rio
Bonsucesso vs Madureira
2:2
Aug 28, 2024 Copa Rio
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
0:2
Aug 21, 2024 Copa Rio
Bonsucesso vs Madureira
1:1
Mar 25, 2015 Carioca
Madureira vs Bonsucesso
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bonsucesso Compare
Top Goalscorer Leo Pedro
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Madureira Compare
Top Goalscorer Geovane Maranhao
1 Goals Assists Leader Caua Coutinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bonsucesso 42 / 100
Madureira 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bonsucesso Madureira
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Bonsucesso's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Madureira's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Bonsucesso has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Bonsucesso VS Madureira
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Bonsucesso
(Home) 22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1 Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2 Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1 Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2 America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0 Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2 Madureira
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2 America RJ
17 Jun
Bonsucesso
3 : 1 Cabofriense
13 Jun
Bonsucesso
0 : 1 Resende
30 May
Bonsucesso
4 : 1 Perolas Negras
Page 1 of 3
Madureira
(Away) 16 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 1 Madureira
02 Sept
Madureira
0 : 0 Boavista
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0 Madureira
12 Aug
Madureira
1 : 1 Portuguesa RJ
05 Aug
Portuguesa RJ
0 : 1 Madureira
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Sampaio Correa FE
1 : 1 Madureira
26 Aug
Boavista
2 : 0 Madureira
05 Aug
Portuguesa RJ
0 : 1 Madureira
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2 Madureira
30 May
Agua Santa
4 : 1 Madureira
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Americano 2
Macae 1
TBD -
Portuguesa RJ -
Cabofriense 1
Bonsucesso 3
TBD -
Madureira -
Perolas Negras 10
Santa Cruz RJ 1
TBD -
Marica -
CEAC/Araruama 2
Sao Cristovao 1
TBD -
Boavista -
Olaria 6
Duque de Caxias 0
TBD -
Bangu -
America RJ -
Goytacaz -
TBD -
Nova Iguacu -
Sao Goncalo 3
Serrano FC 2
TBD -
Volta Redonda -
Resende 11
Belford Roxo 2
TBD -
Sampaio Correa FE -
1/8-finals
Americano 1
Portuguesa RJ 2
Bonsucesso 3
Madureira 4
Perolas Negras 0
Marica 3
CEAC/Araruama 0
Boavista 5
Olaria 3
Bangu 1
America RJ 1
Nova Iguacu 2
Sao Goncalo 2
Volta Redonda 1
Resende 0
Sampaio Correa FE 3
Quarter-finals
Portuguesa RJ 1
Madureira 2
Marica 1
Boavista 3
Olaria 0
Nova Iguacu 1
Sao Goncalo 0
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Semi-finals
Madureira 0
Boavista 2
Nova Iguacu 3
Sampaio Correa FE 2
Final
Boavista 1
Nova Iguacu 1
Madureira 1
Sampaio Correa FE 1
