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Boston River vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Martinez F.
Own Goal
26'
Sub
Viana L. In: Juambeltz M.
Out: Viana L.
46'
Sub
Saravia F. In: Amado A.
Out: Saravia F.

AI Match Summary

Progreso in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Boston River
15%
Draws
51%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Boston River have won more games recently than Progreso.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Boston River Clean Sheet 68%
Progreso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Boston River Progreso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 5 2
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1.1 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Progreso
1:2
Mar 22, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Boston River
0:1
Jan 29, 2026 Copa de la Liga AUF
Boston River vs Progreso
1:2
Aug 31, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Boston River vs Progreso
2:1
Jun 19, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Boston River
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Boston River Compare

Top Goalscorer Siri N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Boston River 41 / 100
Progreso 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Boston River Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Boston River Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progreso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Boston River scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Progreso registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Boston River VS Progreso
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Boston River

(Home)
04 Oct
Boston River
0 : 0
Juventud
26 Sept
Penarol
2 : 1
Boston River
23 Sept
Boston River
3 : 2
Fenix
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
Page 1 of 6

Progreso

(Away)
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
19 Sept
Boston River
1 : 2
Progreso
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 9 6 2 1 17:7 20
2 Montevideo City 9 6 1 2 19:10 19
3 Penarol 9 6 2 1 15:6 19
4 Maldonado 9 5 2 2 13:5 17
5 Club Nacional 9 5 2 2 13:9 17
6 Wanderers 9 4 3 2 12:11 15
7 Juventud 9 3 5 1 10:6 14
8 CA Cerro 9 4 2 3 9:11 14
9 Racing Montevideo 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
10 Progreso 9 4 0 5 9:12 12
11 Boston River 9 2 3 4 10:12 9
12 Defensor Sp. 9 2 2 5 9:16 8
13 Danubio 9 1 4 4 4:10 7
14 Cerro Largo 9 0 5 4 6:12 5
15 Central Esp. 9 1 2 6 5:16 5
16 Albion 9 1 0 8 9:18 3
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)