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Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie A Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Mon, Nov 23, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Botafogo RJ host Sao Paulo in the Serie A. Little to choose between these two on current form. Sao Paulo have shipped 1.2 goals a game lately, while Botafogo RJ have conceded 1.41 and scored 1.17. Past meetings favor Botafogo RJ slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 1.25, favoring Botafogo RJ. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Botafogo RJ
30%
Draws
37%
Sao Paulo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sao Paulo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Sao Paulo haven't matched Botafogo RJ's recent run of results.
  • Botafogo RJ are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Botafogo RJ Clean Sheet 19%
Sao Paulo Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botafogo RJ Sao Paulo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 7
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Serie A
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Serie A
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:0
Apr 16, 2025 Serie A
Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo
2:2
Dec 8, 2024 Serie A
Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo
2:1
Sep 26, 2024 Copa Libertadores
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo RJ 36 / 100
Sao Paulo 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botafogo RJ Sao Paulo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo RJ scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Sao Paulo conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Botafogo RJ went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Botafogo RJ VS Sao Paulo
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Botafogo RJ

(Home)
05 Nov
Botafogo RJ
1 : 0
Atletico-MG
29 Oct
Remo
2 : 1
Botafogo RJ
24 Oct
Internacional
3 : 0
Botafogo RJ
17 Oct
Botafogo RJ
1 : 0
Chapecoense-SC
12 Oct
Coritiba
1 : 1
Botafogo RJ
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Sao Paulo

(Away)
05 Nov
Sao Paulo
0 : 0
Corinthians
29 Oct
Bahia
3 : 2
Sao Paulo
24 Oct
Mirassol
1 : 1
Sao Paulo
18 Oct
Sao Paulo
1 : 0
Vasco
11 Oct
Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Vitoria
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Flamengo RJ 34 23 7 4 71:29 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21 10 3 62:23 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18 6 10 55:48 60
4 Fluminense 34 16 9 9 55:42 57
5 Athletico-PR 34 15 9 10 51:43 54
6 Bahia 34 14 11 9 50:45 53
7 Atletico-MG 34 14 8 12 44:40 50
8 Bragantino 34 13 8 13 44:39 47
9 Santos 34 12 11 11 50:49 47
10 Sao Paulo 34 12 8 14 39:39 44
11 Botafogo RJ 34 11 9 14 46:53 42
12 Coritiba 34 11 9 14 40:51 42
13 Vasco 33 11 8 14 43:50 41
14 Mirassol 34 10 10 14 39:48 40
15 Vitoria 34 10 8 16 35:51 38
16 Internacional 34 9 11 14 38:42 38
17 Corinthians 34 9 10 15 36:42 37
18 Gremio 34 9 10 15 38:47 37
19 Remo 34 6 11 17 37:57 29
20 Chapecoense-SC 33 4 9 20 33:68 21
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B 2027 (Main)