Sport Picks

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Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Santa Cruz
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Botafogo SP play Athletic Club in the Serie B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Botafogo SP averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1 conceded. Athletic Club averaged 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Botafogo SP won 0, Athletic Club won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 25, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Botafogo SP and 1.00 for Athletic Club. This points to a Athletic Club double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Botafogo SP
23%
Draws
44%
Athletic Club
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Athletic Club

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Botafogo SP picked up more points recently compared to Athletic Club.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Botafogo SP Clean Sheet 23%
Athletic Club Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botafogo SP Athletic Club
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.93 1.18
Goals Conceded 1 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 25, 2026 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club
1:2
Sep 14, 2025 Serie B
Athletic Club vs Botafogo SP
2:0
May 12, 2025 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botafogo SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Morelli
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Athletic Club Compare

Top Goalscorer Max
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diogo Batista
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo SP 34 / 100
Athletic Club 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botafogo SP Athletic Club

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Athletic Club or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +22.1%
3.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Botafogo SP attacking → ← attacking Athletic Club

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo SP scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Athletic Club let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Botafogo SP went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Athletic Club lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 38
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2Vila Nova FC1794425:1931
3Novorizontino1686227:1430
4EC Juventude1785417:829
5Fortaleza1684420:1628
6Operario-PR1684420:1728
7Sport Recife1768321:1526
8Sao Bernardo1674521:1425
9Goias1673616:2124
10Cuiaba1658312:923
11Athletic Club1657416:1622
12Nautico1663721:1921
13Atletico GO1656518:1921
14Botafogo SP1755720:1820
15CRB1654724:2919
16Londrina1653824:2418
17Ceara1645715:2017
18Avai1634916:2413
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG16131210:276