Sport Picks

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Botafogo SP vs Avai

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Paulo Vitor
28' Event
Everton Morelli
Assist: Hugo J.
46'
Sub
Douglas Teixeira In: William
Out: Douglas Teixeira

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Botafogo SP and Avai finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Botafogo SP.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Botafogo SP
20%
Draws
40%
Avai
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Avai come out ahead of Botafogo SP on wins alone.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Botafogo SP taking it.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Botafogo SP Clean Sheet 16%
Avai Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Botafogo SP Avai
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Avai
3:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Avai
0:0
Jul 28, 2025 Serie B
Avai vs Botafogo SP
5:0
Nov 19, 2024 Serie B
Botafogo SP vs Avai
1:3
Jul 31, 2024 Serie B
Avai vs Botafogo SP
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Botafogo SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Everton Morelli
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hygor
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Avai Compare

Top Goalscorer Wallison
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Botafogo SP 36 / 100
Avai 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Botafogo SP Avai

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Botafogo SP's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Avai has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Away concern: Avai has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Botafogo SP VS Avai
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Botafogo SP

(Home)
19 Sept
Athletic Club
1 : 1
Botafogo SP
14 Sept
Botafogo SP
1 : 3
Goias
09 Sept
Botafogo SP
1 : 3
Novorizontino
03 Sept
Nautico
1 : 0
Botafogo SP
29 Aug
Botafogo SP
1 : 2
Cuiaba
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Avai

(Away)
20 Sept
Goias
2 : 1
Avai
15 Sept
Avai
1 : 1
Vila Nova FC
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Novorizontino
3 : 1
Avai
30 Aug
Avai
0 : 1
Atletico GO
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vila Nova FC 30 16 6 8 43:31 54
2 Novorizontino 30 14 9 7 49:27 51
3 Fortaleza 29 14 9 6 33:24 51
4 EC Juventude 29 14 8 7 31:19 50
5 Atletico GO 30 13 10 7 37:27 49
6 Operario-PR 30 13 9 8 43:38 48
7 Criciuma 29 13 8 8 28:27 47
8 CRB 29 13 6 10 42:41 45
9 Sport Recife 30 11 11 8 40:32 44
10 Cuiaba 29 10 13 6 30:22 43
11 Goias 30 12 6 12 30:36 42
12 Sao Bernardo 30 11 9 10 40:31 42
13 Nautico 30 11 8 11 38:37 41
14 Athletic Club 29 10 11 8 34:31 41
15 Ceara 30 9 9 12 33:39 36
16 Botafogo SP 29 8 8 13 32:36 32
17 Avai 29 8 6 15 30:38 30
18 Londrina 30 7 7 16 39:43 28
19 America MG 29 4 5 20 21:49 17
20 Ponte Preta 29 3 4 22 17:62 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)