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Boulogne vs Montpellier Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade de la Libération, Boulogne-sur-Mer
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Match Events

29'
Laporte J.
30'
Fatar N.
46'
Sub
Fatar N. In: Lecolier M.
Out: Fatar N.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Boulogne and Montpellier finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Boulogne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Boulogne
35%
Draws
43%
Montpellier
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Montpellier

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montpellier come out ahead of Boulogne on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Boulogne Clean Sheet 19%
Montpellier Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Boulogne Montpellier
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 17
Draws 12 8
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.8 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Boulogne
0:0
Jan 16, 2026 Ligue 2
Boulogne vs Montpellier
1:0
Sep 23, 2025 Ligue 2
Montpellier vs Boulogne
1:3
Feb 6, 2010 Ligue 1
Boulogne vs Montpellier
0:2
Sep 26, 2009 Ligue 1
Montpellier vs Boulogne
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Boulogne Compare

Top Goalscorer Fatou C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Montpellier Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Boulogne 36 / 100
Montpellier 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Boulogne Montpellier

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montpellier Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Boulogne went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Boulogne's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Montpellier's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Boulogne VS Montpellier
0.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Boulogne

(Home)
19 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 2
Nantes
11 Sept
Clermont
0 : 0
Boulogne
04 Sept
Boulogne
1 : 1
Dijon
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Boulogne
1 : 1
Red Star
Page 1 of 6

Montpellier

(Away)
18 Sept
Reims
1 : 1
Montpellier
11 Sept
Montpellier
1 : 0
Pau
05 Sept
St Etienne
3 : 1
Montpellier
28 Aug
Montpellier
0 : 0
Boulogne
21 Aug
Dunkerque
0 : 1
Montpellier
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Troyes 34 20 7 7 60:33 67
2 Le Mans 34 16 14 4 50:31 62
3 St Etienne 34 18 6 10 59:38 60
4 Red Star 34 16 10 8 45:37 58
5 Rodez 34 15 13 6 45:39 58
6 Reims 34 14 14 6 53:35 56
7 Annecy 34 15 7 12 49:39 52
8 Montpellier 34 14 9 11 41:31 51
9 Pau 34 12 9 13 48:62 45
10 Dunkerque 34 11 10 13 53:45 43
11 Guingamp 34 10 10 14 42:49 40
12 Grenoble 34 8 15 11 33:39 39
13 Clermont 34 9 10 15 38:44 37
14 Nancy 34 9 10 15 35:52 37
15 Boulogne 34 9 9 16 34:49 36
16 Laval 34 6 14 14 30:48 32
17 Bastia 34 5 13 16 23:39 28
18 Amiens SC 34 6 6 22 37:65 24
19 AC Ajaccio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)