Sport Picks
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
England
Premier League 2025/2026 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth 
Match Events
22'
22'
Rogers M.
Assist: Sancho J.
35'
35'
Buendia E.
35'
35'
Jimenez A.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Bournemouth and Aston Villa finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Aston Villa carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 18%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bournemouth | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 14 |
| Draws | 14 | 4 |
| Losses | 5 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 2 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.63 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
4:0
May 10, 2025 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
0:1
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
1:1
Apr 21, 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bournemouth Compare
Top Goalscorer Rayan
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Rogers M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bournemouth 32 / 100
Aston Villa 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bournemouth Aston Villa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Bournemouth scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.
Bournemouth has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Aston Villa has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Bournemouth VS Aston Villa
1.5 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Bournemouth
(Home) 24 Jul
Bournemouth
4 : 1 St. Pauli
24 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Bournemouth
19 May
Bournemouth
1 : 1 Manchester City
09 May
Fulham
0 : 1 Bournemouth
03 May
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Crystal Palace
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24 Jul
Bournemouth
4 : 1 St. Pauli
19 May
Bournemouth
1 : 1 Manchester City
03 May
Bournemouth
3 : 0 Crystal Palace
22 Apr
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Leeds
20 Mar
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Manchester United
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Aston Villa
(Away) 28 Jul
Aston Villa
2 : 4 Real Sociedad
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2 Aston Villa
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3 Aston Villa
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25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1 Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5 Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2 Aston Villa
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3 Aston Villa
10 May
Burnley
2 : 2 Aston Villa
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)
