Sport Picks
Bournemouth vs Brentford
England
EFL Cup 2025/2026 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth 
Match Events
34'
34'
Carvalho F.
Assist: Ajer K.
46'
46'
Sub
Gannon-Doak B. In: Semenyo A.
Out: Gannon-Doak B.
46'
46'
Sub
Diakite B. In: Senesi M.
Out: Diakite B.
AI Match Summary
Brentford in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
26%
35%
39%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Brentford
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Bournemouth haven't matched Brentford's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Brentford arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Brentford, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Bournemouth Clean Sheet 10%
Brentford Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 14 | 11 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2.11 | 1.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 2.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Brentford
2:2
Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Brentford
0:0
Dec 27, 2025 Premier League
Brentford vs Bournemouth
4:1
Aug 26, 2025 EFL Cup
Bournemouth vs Brentford
0:2
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Bournemouth vs Brentford
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Bournemouth Compare
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Brentford Compare
Top Goalscorer Carvalho F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Thiago I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Bournemouth 30 / 100
Brentford 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Bournemouth Brentford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Brentford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Bournemouth scored in 89% of their last 28 outings.
Brentford has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Solid form: Bournemouth remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Bournemouth VS Brentford
3.25 Goals Scored 3.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Bournemouth
(Home) 12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0 Lincoln City
05 Sept
Newcastle Utd
2 : 2 Bournemouth
29 Aug
Bournemouth
1 : 1 Everton
23 Aug
Manchester City
2 : 1 Bournemouth
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
08 Sept
Bournemouth
4 : 0 Lincoln City
29 Aug
Bournemouth
1 : 1 Everton
04 Aug
Bournemouth
10 : 1 Genoa
24 Jul
Bournemouth
4 : 1 St. Pauli
Page 1 of 3
Brentford
(Away) 15 Sept
Reading
1 : 2 Brentford
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
05 Sept
Brentford
1 : 1 Sunderland
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1 Brentford
25 Aug
Birmingham
1 : 6 Brentford
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Reading
1 : 2 Brentford
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1 Brentford
25 Aug
Birmingham
1 : 6 Brentford
08 Aug
Rennes
2 : 4 Brentford
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
