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Bra vs Casale

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Kemayou N.
55' Event
Pavesi M.
67' Event
Pavesi M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Bra and Casale finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Bra
35%
Draws
32%
Casale
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bra come out ahead of Casale on wins alone.
  • Model gives Bra a 33% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Casale here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Bra Clean Sheet 18%
Casale Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bra Casale
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 13 1
Draws 14 5
Losses 12 24
Goals Scored 1.26 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.1 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Bra vs Casale
3:1
Nov 20, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Bra
1:0
May 8, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Bra vs Casale
1:2
Dec 22, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Casale vs Bra
3:1
Mar 7, 2021 Serie D - Group A
Bra vs Casale
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Bra Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavesi M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bongiovanni F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Casale Compare

Top Goalscorer Kemayou N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bra 49 / 100
Casale 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bra Casale

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bra found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (39 games).

Casale let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Casale has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Bra VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.63 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bra

(Home)
12 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 0
Bra
06 Sept
Bra
1 : 1
Fezzanese
16 May
Sassari Torres
2 : 1
Bra
09 May
Bra
0 : 1
Sassari Torres
26 Apr
Juventus U23
2 : 2
Bra
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Casale

(Away)
07 May
Casale
1 : 1
Asti Calcio
30 Apr
Chisola
2 : 1
Casale
23 Apr
Casale
2 : 2
Pinerolo
15 Apr
Sanremese
1 : 0
Casale
06 Apr
Casale
0 : 2
Castanese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)