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Braga vs Estoril

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Sub
Garcia F. In: Ramos A.
Out: Garcia F.
34'
Ferro
46'
Sub
Arrey-Mbi B. In: Bajrami A.
Out: Arrey-Mbi B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Braga and Estoril finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Braga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Braga
20%
Draws
7%
Estoril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Braga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Braga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Braga's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Braga Clean Sheet 20%
Estoril Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Braga Estoril
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 18 7
Draws 10 8
Losses 3 15
Goals Scored 1.74 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.32
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Estoril
1:0
May 3, 2026 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Estoril
1:1
Dec 19, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Braga
1:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Braga
0:2
Dec 6, 2024 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Estoril
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Braga Compare

Top Goalscorer Wind J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Estoril Compare

Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Braga 85 / 100
Estoril 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Braga Estoril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Braga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Braga scored in 90% of their last 31 outings.

Estoril let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Braga stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Braga VS Estoril
1.25 Goals Scored 0.38
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Braga

(Home)
20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0
Braga
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1
Braga
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2
Braga
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes
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Estoril

(Away)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)