Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brage vs Varnamo

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Domnarvsvallen, Borlange
Our Tip

Match Events

34'
Lundin A.
39' Event
Nordh G.
Assist: Trpcevski F.
43'
Sub
Andersson H. In: Coulibaly S.
Out: Andersson H.

AI Match Summary

The Superettan game between Brage and Varnamo finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brage.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Brage
35%
Draws
58%
Varnamo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varnamo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brage come out ahead of Varnamo on wins alone.
  • Varnamo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Brage Clean Sheet 11%
Varnamo Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brage Varnamo
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 8 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.54 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Superettan
Varnamo vs Brage
0:0
Jun 21, 2026 Superettan
Brage vs Varnamo
5:1
Nov 20, 2021 Superettan
Brage vs Varnamo
3:1
Apr 24, 2021 Superettan
Varnamo vs Brage
1:0
Jul 28, 2018 Superettan
Brage vs Varnamo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brage Compare

Top Goalscorer Nordh G.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Trpcevski F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Varnamo Compare

Top Goalscorer Meriluoto K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brage 10 / 100
Varnamo 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brage Varnamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varnamo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Varnamo conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Brage's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Brage went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brage VS Varnamo
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Brage

(Home)
05 Sept
Brage
0 : 1
Sundsvall
29 Aug
Falkenberg
4 : 1
Brage
23 Aug
Brage
1 : 2
Nordic United
18 Aug
Karlbergs
2 : 0
Brage
14 Aug
Brage
3 : 3
Orebro
Page 1 of 6

Varnamo

(Away)
05 Sept
Varnamo
1 : 1
Varberg
29 Aug
Ljungskile
0 : 1
Varnamo
24 Aug
Varnamo
1 : 1
Landskrona
19 Aug
Vaxjo Norra
1 : 3
Varnamo
16 Aug
Varnamo
1 : 1
Ostersund
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norrkoping 22 15 3 4 43:15 48
2 Varberg 22 11 5 6 39:28 38
3 Falkenberg 22 11 5 6 42:32 38
4 Ostersund 22 10 8 4 31:23 38
5 Nordic United 22 9 8 5 34:31 35
6 Landskrona 22 9 7 6 30:23 34
7 Sandviken 22 9 6 7 38:29 33
8 Oster 22 10 3 9 33:32 33
9 Oddevold 22 8 8 6 36:32 32
10 Helsingborg 22 7 5 10 34:43 26
11 Norrby 22 4 11 7 26:31 23
12 Varnamo 22 6 5 11 26:39 23
13 Ljungskile 22 5 7 10 27:32 22
14 Brage 22 5 6 11 35:43 21
15 Orebro 22 4 8 10 21:34 20
16 Sundsvall 22 5 1 16 16:44 16
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)