Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense

Brazil Brazil

Copa FGF Estádio Bento Freitas, Pelotas
Thu, Jul 23, 2026
2 - 2
11:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Matheus Streit
62' Event
Sausen Xavier M.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Gabriel Morbeck

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-2. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Brasil de Pelotas
40%
Draws
29%
Gramadense
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Gramadense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Gramadense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 68%
Gramadense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 12 11
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.5 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 23, 2026 Copa FGF
Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense
2:2
Jul 12, 2026 Copa FGF
Gramadense vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasil de Pelotas Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Streit
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabriel Morbeck
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Gramadense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasil de Pelotas 42 / 100
Gramadense 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasil de Pelotas Gramadense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brasil de Pelotas found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Brasil de Pelotas has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Gramadense conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Brasil de Pelotas VS Gramadense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasil de Pelotas

(Home)
23 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2
Gramadense
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
04 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RS
27 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
1 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
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Gramadense

(Away)
23 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2
Gramadense
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
05 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 1
GE Bage
27 Jun
GE Bage
0 : 1
Gramadense
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
2 : 2
Gramadense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Brasil de Pelotas 2
Santa Cruz RS 1
Gramadense 2
GE Bage 1
Final
Brasil de Pelotas 2
Gramadense 3