Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Brasilia FC (DF) vs Ceilandia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense Valmir Campelo Bezerra (Bezerrao), Gama
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Guilherme de Jesus Bueno F.
23' Event
Muller L.
76' Event
Cleyton

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense game between Brasilia FC (DF) and Ceilandia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ceilandia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Brasilia FC (DF)
22%
Draws
60%
Ceilandia
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ceilandia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Ceilandia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Ceilandia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ceilandia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Brasilia FC (DF) Clean Sheet 13%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasilia FC (DF) Ceilandia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 10
Draws 3 10
Losses 18 11
Goals Scored 0.33 1.38
Goals Conceded 2 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.33 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Ceilandia
1:2
Feb 15, 2023 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Brasilia FC (DF)
3:3
Jan 29, 2022 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Brasilia FC (DF)
2:1
Mar 1, 2017 Brasiliense
Brasilia FC (DF) vs Ceilandia
0:3
Apr 13, 2016 Brasiliense
Ceilandia vs Brasilia FC (DF)
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasilia FC (DF) Compare

Top Goalscorer Muller L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.25
Avg xA / game 0.17

Ceilandia Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme de Jesus Bueno F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cleyton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasilia FC (DF) 19 / 100
Ceilandia 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasilia FC (DF) Ceilandia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Brasilia FC (DF) scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Ceilandia conceded in 77% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Brasilia FC (DF) remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brasilia FC (DF) VS Ceilandia
0.33 Goals Scored 1.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
67% Over 1.5 63%
33% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasilia FC (DF)

(Home)
28 Feb
Sobradinho
1 : 0
Brasilia FC (DF)
22 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
0 : 2
Real Brasilia
12 Feb
Brasilia FC (DF)
1 : 3
Capital
07 Feb
Samambaia
4 : 1
Brasilia FC (DF)
31 Jan
ARUC
0 : 1
Brasilia FC (DF)
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Ceilandia

(Away)
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2
Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1
Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1
Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3
Ceilandia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Gama972015:423
2Samambaia962121:520
3Sobradinho952211:817
4Ceilandia951317:1216
5Capital943219:1015
6Brasiliense943213:715
7Real Brasilia931511:1310
8Paranoa92078:246
9Brasilia FC (DF)91084:193
10ARUC91083:203
Promotion - Brasiliense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Brasiliense 2 (Main)