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Brasiliense vs Samambaia

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Victor Xavier
40' Event
Joaozinho
60' Event
Tarta

AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2025 game between Brasiliense and Samambaia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brasiliense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Brasiliense
30%
Draws
39%
Samambaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Samambaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Brasiliense come out ahead of Samambaia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Samambaia's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Brasiliense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Brasiliense Clean Sheet 13%
Samambaia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brasiliense Samambaia
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 12 6
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.22 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.97 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.66 1.70
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Brasiliense
Samambaia vs Brasiliense
0:1
Jan 19, 2025 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Samambaia
2:1
Mar 10, 2024 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Samambaia
3:1
Feb 16, 2023 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Samambaia
2:2
Mar 7, 2021 Brasiliense
Brasiliense vs Samambaia
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brasiliense Compare

Top Goalscorer Joaozinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tarta
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.33

Samambaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Victor Xavier
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brasiliense 10 / 100
Samambaia 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brasiliense Samambaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Samambaia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Brasiliense found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

Samambaia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Solid form: Brasiliense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brasiliense VS Samambaia
1.13 Goals Scored 2.4
1 Goals Conceded 0.2
63% Over 1.5 60%
25% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Brasiliense

(Home)
27 Jun
Goiatuba EC
1 : 0
Brasiliense
21 Jun
Brasiliense
0 : 0
Goiatuba EC
07 Jun
Primavera AC
1 : 2
Brasiliense
31 May
Brasiliense
1 : 1
Luverdense
24 May
Brasiliense
1 : 0
Inhumas
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Samambaia

(Away)
15 Mar
Samambaia
0 : 1
Sobradinho
08 Mar
Sobradinho
0 : 0
Samambaia
28 Feb
Paranoa
0 : 6
Samambaia
22 Feb
Samambaia
3 : 0
Sobradinho
12 Feb
ARUC
0 : 3
Samambaia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brasiliense 9 7 1 1 15:4 22
2 Capital 9 6 2 1 17:5 20
3 Ceilandia 9 6 1 2 12:8 19
4 Gama 9 5 2 2 7:4 17
5 Paranoa 9 5 0 4 13:11 15
6 Sobradinho 9 3 3 3 9:6 12
7 Samambaia 9 3 2 4 9:8 11
8 Real Brasilia 9 1 2 6 6:15 5
9 Ceilandense 9 1 2 6 8:18 5
10 Legiao 9 0 1 8 3:20 1
Promotion - Brasiliense 2025 (Play Offs)