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Brazil vs Costa Rica

South America South America

Copa América SoFi Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Brazil play Costa Rica in the Copa América. It looks like a close match. Recently, Brazil averaged 2.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Costa Rica averaged 1 goals scored and 2.14 conceded. In past meetings, Brazil won 4, Costa Rica won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 25, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.45 for Brazil and 1.13 for Costa Rica. This points to a Brazil double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Brazil
6%
Draws
4%
Costa Rica
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Brazil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Brazil has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Costa Rica.
  • Model forecasts a 90% win probability edge for Brazil.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Copa América provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 53.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Brazil Clean Sheet 68%
Costa Rica Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brazil Costa Rica
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 8 10
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 2.75 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.14
Expected Goals (xG) 2.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 25, 2024 Copa América
Brazil vs Costa Rica
0:0
Jun 22, 2018 World Championship
Brazil vs Costa Rica
2:0
Sep 5, 2015 Friendly International
Costa Rica vs Brazil
0:1
Oct 8, 2011 Friendly International
Costa Rica vs Brazil
0:1
Jul 11, 2004 Copa América
Brazil vs Costa Rica
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brazil 95 / 100
Costa Rica 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brazil Costa Rica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BRA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brazil scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Costa Rica let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Brazil went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Costa Rica lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brazil VS Costa Rica
2.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.14
100% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 71%
50% Over 3.5 57%

League Standings

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PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Colombia32106:27
2Brazil31205:25
3Costa Rica31112:44
4Paraguay30033:80