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Breno vs USD Casatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Goffi T.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Breno
20%
Draws
56%
USD Casatese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: USD Casatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to USD Casatese lately — more wins on the board than Breno.
  • Win probability leans USD Casatese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Breno Clean Sheet 13%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno USD Casatese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 10
Losses 15 5
Goals Scored 0.97 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Breno
2:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Breno
6:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
1:1
May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Breno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Goffi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 10 / 100
USD Casatese 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno USD Casatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Breno stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Breno scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

USD Casatese let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS USD Casatese
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.38
100% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
Page 1 of 6

USD Casatese

(Away)
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
USD Casatese
4 : 0
AC Leon
03 May
USD Casatese
1 : 0
AC Leon
26 Apr
Scanzorosciate
0 : 3
USD Casatese
19 Apr
USD Casatese
1 : 0
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)