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Breno vs USD Casatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Goffi T.

AI Match Summary

USD Casatese in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored USD Casatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Breno
30%
Draws
41%
USD Casatese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: USD Casatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to USD Casatese lately — more wins on the board than Breno.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Breno Clean Sheet 13%
USD Casatese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Breno USD Casatese
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 0.97 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.70
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Breno
2:1
Apr 13, 2025 Serie D - Group B
USD Casatese vs Breno
6:0
Dec 1, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
1:1
May 7, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Breno vs USD Casatese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Breno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

USD Casatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Goffi T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.55
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Breno 35 / 100
USD Casatese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Breno USD Casatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick USD Casatese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Breno stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Breno scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

USD Casatese let in goals in 56% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Breno VS USD Casatese
1 Goals Scored 2
1.4 Goals Conceded 0.38
80% Over 1.5 50%
40% Over 2.5 50%
20% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Breno

(Home)
10 May
Breno
0 : 1
Pavia
03 May
Breno
2 : 1
Villa Valle
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
Breno
0 : 2
Brusaporto
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1
Breno
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USD Casatese

(Away)
20 Sept
Correggese
1 : 3
USD Casatese
16 Sept
USD Casatese
1 : 2
Sant'Angelo
12 Sept
Solbiatese
0 : 0
USD Casatese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
23 Aug
Piacenza
2 : 1
USD Casatese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)