Sport Picks

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Brighton vs Chelsea

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Amex Stadium, Brighton
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Kadioglu F.
45'
Fofana W.
46'
Sub
Fofana W. In: Garnacho A.
Out: Fofana W.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Brighton and Chelsea finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brighton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Brighton
20%
Draws
38%
Chelsea
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Brighton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Chelsea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Brighton are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Brighton have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Brighton Clean Sheet 20%
Chelsea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brighton Chelsea
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.38 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2026 Premier League
Brighton vs Chelsea
3:0
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League
Chelsea vs Brighton
1:3
Feb 14, 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Chelsea
3:0
Feb 8, 2025 FA Cup
Brighton vs Chelsea
2:1
Sep 28, 2024 Premier League
Chelsea vs Brighton
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brighton Compare

Top Goalscorer Kadioglu F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hinshelwood J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chelsea Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brighton 42 / 100
Chelsea 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brighton Chelsea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chelsea's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Brighton scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Away concern: Chelsea has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Brighton VS Chelsea
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Brighton

(Home)
24 May
Brighton
0 : 3
Manchester United
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
09 May
Brighton
3 : 0
Wolves
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1
Brighton
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0
Chelsea
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Chelsea

(Away)
24 May
Sunderland
2 : 1
Chelsea
19 May
Chelsea
2 : 1
Tottenham
16 May
Chelsea
0 : 1
Manchester City
09 May
Liverpool
1 : 1
Chelsea
04 May
Chelsea
1 : 3
Nottingham
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)