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Brighton vs Stoke City

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Mitoma K.
39' Event
Baker L.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Mubama D. In: Lowe N.
Out: Mubama D.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Brighton and Stoke City finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brighton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Brighton
28%
Draws
22%
Stoke City
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Brighton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Brighton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Brighton a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Brighton Clean Sheet 20%
Stoke City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brighton Stoke City
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 7
Draws 7 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.38 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2025 Club Friendly
Brighton vs Stoke City
3:1
Jan 6, 2024 FA Cup
Stoke City vs Brighton
2:4
Feb 28, 2023 FA Cup
Stoke City vs Brighton
0:1
Feb 10, 2018 Premier League
Stoke City vs Brighton
1:1
Nov 20, 2017 Premier League
Brighton vs Stoke City
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brighton Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitoma K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coppola D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Stoke City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brighton 49 / 100
Stoke City 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brighton Stoke City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BHA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Brighton's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Defensive concern: Stoke City conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Stoke City's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Brighton VS Stoke City
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Brighton

(Home)
24 May
Brighton
0 : 3
Manchester United
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0
Brighton
09 May
Brighton
3 : 0
Wolves
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1
Brighton
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0
Chelsea
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Stoke City

(Away)
28 Jul
Stoke City
1 : 0
Everton
18 Jul
Crewe
1 : 1
Stoke City
10 Jul
Stoke City
0 : 1
Braga
02 May
Bristol City
2 : 0
Stoke City
25 Apr
Stoke City
1 : 3
Portsmouth
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