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Brighton vs Stoke City

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Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Mitoma K.
39' Event
Baker L.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Mubama D. In: Lowe N.
Out: Mubama D.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Brighton and Stoke City finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brighton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Brighton
20%
Draws
45%
Stoke City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Stoke City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Brighton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Brighton a 35% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Brighton Clean Sheet 20%
Stoke City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brighton Stoke City
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 4 6
Losses 9 15
Goals Scored 1.82 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2025 Club Friendly
Brighton vs Stoke City
3:1
Jan 6, 2024 FA Cup
Stoke City vs Brighton
2:4
Feb 28, 2023 FA Cup
Stoke City vs Brighton
0:1
Feb 10, 2018 Premier League
Stoke City vs Brighton
1:1
Nov 20, 2017 Premier League
Brighton vs Stoke City
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brighton Compare

Top Goalscorer Mitoma K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Coppola D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Stoke City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brighton 85 / 100
Stoke City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brighton Stoke City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brighton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Stoke City let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Brighton found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Recent resilience: Brighton stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brighton VS Stoke City
2.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Brighton

(Home)
19 Sept
Brighton
3 : 0
Arsenal
16 Sept
Manchester United
2 : 3
Brighton
13 Sept
Coventry
0 : 5
Brighton
05 Sept
Brighton
1 : 1
Leeds
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3
Brighton
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Stoke City

(Away)
19 Sept
Stoke City
2 : 1
Sheffield Utd
12 Sept
Watford
1 : 2
Stoke City
08 Sept
Cardiff
1 : 1
Stoke City
05 Sept
Stoke City
4 : 0
Charlton
01 Sept
Stoke City
1 : 0
Norwich
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