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Stadium Background

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter

England England

League Two Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Sat, Sep 26, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bristol Rovers host Exeter in the League Two. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Bristol Rovers at 1.78 goals for, 1.15 against; Exeter at 1.03 for, 1.52 against. Head-to-head, Bristol Rovers have won 1 to Exeter's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2025, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.31 - 1.13) back Bristol Rovers to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Bristol Rovers
20%
Draws
29%
Exeter
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bristol Rovers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Bristol Rovers have won more games recently than Exeter.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Bristol Rovers taking it.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Exeter here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Bristol Rovers Clean Sheet 20%
Exeter Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bristol Rovers Exeter
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 16 4
Draws 4 10
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.78 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2025 League One
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter
1:2
Dec 26, 2024 League One
Exeter vs Bristol Rovers
3:1
Oct 29, 2024 EFL Trophy
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter
2:3
Feb 3, 2024 League One
Exeter vs Bristol Rovers
0:1
Jan 23, 2024 League One
Bristol Rovers vs Exeter
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bristol Rovers 42 / 100
Exeter 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bristol Rovers Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bristol Rovers's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Exeter has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Bristol Rovers went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bristol Rovers VS Exeter
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Bristol Rovers

(Home)
19 Sept
Gillingham
3 : 0
Bristol Rovers
12 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0
Bristol Rovers
05 Sept
Bristol Rovers
1 : 0
Rotherham
01 Sept
Bristol Rovers
2 : 0
Colchester
29 Aug
Crawley Town
0 : 2
Bristol Rovers
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Exeter

(Away)
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2
Exeter
19 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0
Tranmere
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0
Exeter
08 Sept
Exeter
2 : 0
Tottenham U21
05 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0
Walsall
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 17:10 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 10:4 13
3 Grimsby 7 3 4 0 11:6 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 11:6 12
5 Cheltenham 7 3 3 1 14:11 12
6 Bristol Rovers 7 4 0 3 12:11 12
7 York City 7 3 2 2 13:10 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 10:8 11
9 Crewe 7 2 5 0 7:5 11
10 Tranmere 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 8:7 10
12 Salford 7 3 1 3 8:9 10
13 Swindon 7 3 1 3 8:11 10
14 Rotherham 7 2 3 2 10:10 9
15 Colchester 7 2 3 2 8:10 9
16 Oldham 7 2 1 4 8:9 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7:10 7
18 Shrewsbury 7 2 1 4 5:11 7
19 Newport 7 1 3 3 10:11 6
20 Exeter 7 1 3 3 4:5 6
21 Accrington 7 1 3 3 10:13 6
22 Northampton 7 1 3 3 3:6 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 3:9 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 6:13 4
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)