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Bristol Rovers vs Swindon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League Two Memorial Stadium, Bristol
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
11:30 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bristol Rovers host Swindon in the League Two. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Bristol Rovers at 1.7 goals for, 1.44 against; Swindon at 1.21 for, 1.62 against. Past meetings favor Swindon slightly — 1-2-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Feb 28, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.31) point toward Bristol Rovers. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Bristol Rovers
20%
Draws
32%
Swindon
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bristol Rovers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bristol Rovers lately — more wins on the board than Swindon.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Swindon taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Bristol Rovers Clean Sheet 18%
Swindon Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bristol Rovers Swindon
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.7 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 League Two
Swindon vs Bristol Rovers
1:1
Dec 13, 2025 League Two
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon
0:3
Oct 8, 2024 EFL Trophy
Swindon vs Bristol Rovers
4:0
Oct 18, 2022 EFL Trophy
Bristol Rovers vs Swindon
3:0
Jan 22, 2022 League Two
Swindon vs Bristol Rovers
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bristol Rovers 23 / 100
Swindon 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bristol Rovers Swindon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Swindon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bristol Rovers scored in 85% of their last 27 outings.

Swindon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Swindon lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Bristol Rovers VS Swindon
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Bristol Rovers

(Home)
17 Oct
Shrewsbury
1 : 0
Bristol Rovers
10 Oct
Bristol Rovers
1 : 3
Barnet
06 Oct
Wycombe
4 : 1
Bristol Rovers
03 Oct
Crewe
3 : 1
Bristol Rovers
26 Sept
Bristol Rovers
1 : 0
Exeter
Page 1 of 6

Swindon

(Away)
17 Oct
Swindon
1 : 1
Walsall
10 Oct
Swindon
0 : 1
Crewe
03 Oct
Rochdale
1 : 0
Swindon
26 Sept
Swindon
1 : 1
Accrington
22 Sept
Swindon
0 : 2
Newport
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Salford 11 7 1 3 17:11 22
2 Barnet 9 6 3 0 22:12 21
3 Crewe 11 5 6 0 15:9 21
4 York City 10 4 4 2 18:12 16
5 Walsall 10 3 7 0 13:7 16
6 Gillingham 11 4 4 3 16:13 16
7 Chesterfield 11 4 3 4 17:15 15
8 Cheltenham 11 4 3 4 17:20 15
9 Bristol Rovers 11 5 0 6 15:18 15
10 Accrington 11 3 5 3 16:15 14
11 Newport 11 3 5 3 14:13 14
12 Fleetwood Town 11 3 5 3 12:11 14
13 Rochdale 11 4 2 5 13:15 14
14 Shrewsbury 11 4 2 5 10:15 14
15 Grimsby 11 3 4 4 13:13 13
16 Exeter 11 3 4 4 6:6 13
17 Tranmere 11 2 6 3 14:15 12
18 Swindon 11 3 3 5 10:15 12
19 Oldham 10 3 2 5 13:14 11
20 Colchester 10 2 5 3 10:13 11
21 Port Vale 9 3 2 4 5:9 11
22 Northampton 9 2 4 3 6:7 10
23 Rotherham 11 2 4 5 12:18 10
24 Crawley Town 9 1 2 6 9:17 5
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League 2027/2028 (Main)