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Brusaporto vs Castellanzese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

46' Event
Finazzi R.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Brusaporto and Castellanzese finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Brusaporto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Brusaporto
15%
Draws
42%
Castellanzese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Brusaporto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Castellanzese haven't matched Brusaporto's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Castellanzese taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Brusaporto Clean Sheet 16%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Brusaporto Castellanzese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 4 8
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Brusaporto vs Castellanzese
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Brusaporto
0:1
May 5, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Brusaporto
3:3
Dec 20, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Brusaporto vs Castellanzese
2:0
Mar 27, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Brusaporto
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Brusaporto Compare

Top Goalscorer Finazzi R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Castellanzese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Brusaporto 28 / 100
Castellanzese 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Brusaporto Castellanzese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Brusaporto found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (31 games).

Castellanzese let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Recent resilience: Brusaporto stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Brusaporto VS Castellanzese
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Brusaporto

(Home)
27 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 3
Brusaporto
20 Sept
Brusaporto
1 : 0
Fiorenzuola
16 Sept
AC Milan U23
2 : 1
Brusaporto
12 Sept
Brusaporto
2 : 1
Tritium
06 Sept
AC Leon
2 : 0
Brusaporto
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Castellanzese

(Away)
27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0
Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4
Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1
Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0
Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1
US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)