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Bugesera vs Rayon Sport - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Bugesera host Rayon Sport in the Premier League. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Bugesera have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.16 conceded recently, against Rayon Sport's 1.18 scored and 0.6 conceded. Past meetings favor Rayon Sport slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 26, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (0.58 xG vs 1.00) point toward Rayon Sport. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Bugesera
35%
Draws
19%
Rayon Sport
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bugesera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Bugesera haven't matched Rayon Sport's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Bugesera a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 20%
Rayon Sport Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Bugesera Rayon Sport
Matches Played 32 40
Wins 14 18
Draws 4 17
Losses 14 5
Goals Scored 1.13 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.6
Expected Goals (xG) 0.58 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 26, 2026 Premier League
Rayon Sport vs Bugesera
2:0
Dec 14, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Rayon Sport
2:1
May 17, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Rayon Sport
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 Premier League
Rayon Sport vs Bugesera
2:0
Apr 20, 2024 Premier League
Bugesera vs Rayon Sport
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Bugesera 40 / 100
Rayon Sport 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Bugesera Rayon Sport

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bugesera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Bugesera scored in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Bugesera went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Rayon Sport's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 40 matches.

Scoring Trends

Bugesera VS Rayon Sport
0.67 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Bugesera

(Home)
10 Oct
Bugesera
2 : 0
Etincelles
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
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Rayon Sport

(Away)
09 Oct
Gorilla
1 : 0
Rayon Sport
17 Sept
Rayon Sport
1 : 1
Sunrise
12 Sept
Rayon Sport
0 : 0
Panthere
04 Sept
Panthere
1 : 1
Rayon Sport
27 Aug
Rayon Sport
0 : 1
Police
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Etincelles 4 2 1 1 2:2 7
3 Gorilla 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
4 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
5 Marines 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
6 Kiyovu 4 1 1 2 1:2 4
7 Kigali FC 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
8 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
9 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
11 Bugesera 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
12 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
13 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
14 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
15 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
16 Rayon Sport 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
17 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)