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BUL vs Police

Uganda Uganda

Premier League FUFA Technical Centre, Njeru
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Ikamba B.
29' Event
Ndugwa K.
84' Event
Jakony D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between BUL and Police finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Police.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
BUL
35%
Draws
43%
Police
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Police

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • BUL haven't matched Police's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
BUL Clean Sheet 20%
Police Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric BUL Police
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2026 Premier League
Police vs BUL
0:2
Dec 16, 2025 Premier League
BUL vs Police
1:3
Apr 16, 2025 Premier League
BUL vs Police
0:0
Sep 16, 2024 Premier League
Police vs BUL
0:0
May 14, 2022 Premier League
Police vs BUL
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

BUL Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndugwa K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Police Compare

Top Goalscorer Ikamba B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jakony D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

BUL 32 / 100
Police 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
BUL Police

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: BUL scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Police conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

BUL has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

BUL VS Police
0.63 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

BUL

(Home)
23 May
Entebbe UPPC
4 : 0
BUL
19 May
BUL
1 : 1
Kitara
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
08 May
Villa
0 : 0
BUL
28 Apr
BUL
0 : 1
NEC FC
Page 1 of 6

Police

(Away)
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
Police
1 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
12 May
Police
0 : 0
Vipers
06 May
Calvary
1 : 0
Police
29 Apr
Police
2 : 0
UPDF FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)