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Burkina Faso vs Benin

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Burkina Faso play Benin in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Burkina Faso averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Benin averaged 0.96 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Burkina Faso won 2, Benin won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 18, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Burkina Faso and 0.75 for Benin. This points to a Burkina Faso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Burkina Faso
24%
Draws
30%
Benin
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Burkina Faso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Burkina Faso picked up more points recently compared to Benin.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%
Burkina Faso Clean Sheet 27%
Benin Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burkina Faso Benin
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 18 10
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.88 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2025 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Benin
3:0
May 21, 2017 Friendly International
Benin vs Burkina Faso
2:2
May 4, 2017 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Benin
1:1
Nov 17, 2015 World Championship
Burkina Faso vs Benin
2:0
Nov 12, 2015 World Championship
Benin vs Burkina Faso
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burkina Faso Compare

Top Goalscorer Minoungou G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Simpore S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Benin Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burkina Faso 47 / 100
Benin 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burkina Faso Benin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Burkina Faso or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21%
2.63
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Burkina Faso attacking → ← attacking Benin

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burkina Faso scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Benin let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Burkina Faso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Benin lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 36
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25