Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade du 26 Mars

Burkina Faso

3 - 1

Malawi

Our Tip

Match Events

29'

Simpore S.

35'

Traore L.

Assist: Simpore S.

38'

Traore L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Africa Cup of Nations 2025 game between Burkina Faso and Malawi finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burkina Faso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Burkina Faso

28%

Draws

22%

Malawi

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Burkina Faso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Burkina Faso carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Burkina Faso a 50% chance of winning this.
Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 50%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%

Burkina Faso Clean Sheet 68%

Malawi Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Burkina Faso	Malawi
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	17	8
Draws	4	5
Losses	10	17
Goals Scored	1.75	0.63
Goals Conceded	1	0.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs Burkina Faso

Possession: 47% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

3:0

Sep 10, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations

Burkina Faso vs Malawi

Possession: 54% - 45% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Nov 16, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs Burkina Faso

Possession: 41% - 45% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Nov 12, 2020 Africa Cup of Nations

Burkina Faso vs Malawi

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

3:1

Nov 14, 2009 World Championship

Burkina Faso vs Malawi

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burkina Faso Compare

Top Goalscorer Traore L.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Malawi Compare

Top Goalscorer Nkhoma Z.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burkina Faso 59 / 100

Malawi 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Burkina Faso Malawi

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick BFA Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burkina Faso scored in 74% of their last 31 games.

Malawi let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Burkina Faso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Burkina Faso VS Malawi

1.75 Goals Scored 0.63

1 Goals Conceded 0.63

75% Over 1.5 25%

63% Over 2.5 13%

25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4