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Burkina Faso vs Niger

World World

Friendly International 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Burkina Faso play Niger in the Friendly International 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Burkina Faso averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Niger averaged 0.92 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. In past meetings, Burkina Faso won 2, Niger won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Nov 14, 2025 ended 3:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Burkina Faso and 1.00 for Niger. This points to a Burkina Faso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Burkina Faso
35%
Draws
23%
Niger
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Burkina Faso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence
  • Burkina Faso picked up more points recently compared to Niger.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Burkina Faso Clean Sheet 23%
Niger Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Burkina Faso Niger
Matches Played 33 26
Wins 17 6
Draws 6 11
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.67 0.92
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.08
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Friendly International
Burkina Faso vs Niger
3:2
Dec 16, 2024 Friendly International
Niger vs Burkina Faso
0:0
Dec 14, 2024 Friendly International
Niger vs Burkina Faso
0:1
Mar 26, 2024 Friendly International
Niger vs Burkina Faso
1:1
Nov 12, 2021 World Championship
Burkina Faso vs Niger
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Burkina Faso Compare

Top Goalscorer Kabore P.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Niger Compare

Top Goalscorer Badamassi O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sosah D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Burkina Faso 42 / 100
Niger 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Burkina Faso Niger

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Burkina Faso or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Burkina Faso attacking → ← attacking Niger

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Burkina Faso scored in 73% of their last 33 games.

Niger let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Burkina Faso went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Niger lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 29
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00